Авторы публикации
RF continues the strategy of missile terror, with the goal of the destruction of the Ukrainian critical infrastructure. On November 23, after the seventh massive attack by the RF Armed Forces, the country experienced a partial blackout, 11 regions of Ukraine were completely without electricity, and in other regions, there were serious interruptions in the Internet, water, and heat supply. The power units of all three nuclear power plants in the controlled territory were turned off, the work of which was partially restored only by the evening of November 24. Also, the Russian Federation damaged almost all thermal power plants and large hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine. As of November 29, there is a shortage of electricity at a level of at least 30% (at least 50% for the needs of the population), and emergency and planned blackouts for consumers continue. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities are already preparing public opinion for a possible complete power outage or planned power for several hours a day, if shelling from the Russian Federation continues. An additional tool for stabilizing the energy system of Ukraine can be the import of electricity from Europe - Ukraine has already carried out a test import of electricity from Romania, increasing the supply of equipment for repairs and air defense/missile defense systems.
Authorities say the latest rocket attacks have caused $1 billion in direct losses. The total damage to Ukraine's infrastructure already exceeds $100 billion. And President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said that in general, the restoration of Ukraine after the war will require more than 1 trillion dollars.
At the front, due to adverse weather conditions and the exhaustion of the parties, the fighting was transformed into a positional phase. At the same time, active confrontation continues in certain sectors of the front. So in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the RF Armed Forces are trying to attack (active military operations on the front section from the city of Bakhmut and the city of Soledar to the city of Maryinka), in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions they are conducting defense. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are holding back the advance of the RF Armed Forces in the area of the city of Bakhmut, but the situation here is becoming more complicated. The RF Armed Forces are trying to bypass the city from the south. Kurdyumovka, which is located south of the city of Bakhmut and occupies heights that allow Russian artillery to strike at the settlement of Chasov Yar and the city of Konstantinovka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing to start a new wave of covert mobilization from December 10. In addition, the group is expected to strengthen due to the transfer of units from the territory of Belarus.
The position of Ukrainian troops at the front directly depends on Western arms supplies. In addition, due to the Russian shelling of energy infrastructure, Ukraine is in dire need of new air defense systems. In particular, the NATO countries are discussing the possible supply of Patriot air defense systems (air defense) to Kyiv. In total, partner countries have provided about $40 billion in arms to Ukraine, roughly the size of France's annual defense budget. The total declared amount of financial and military assistance has already reached - 93 billion euros as of October 1, 2022.
At the same time, the shortage of weapons and ammunition for them in NATO countries, publicly announced by the Western media, can be viewed as a public formation of explanations why Ukraine may receive less of it in the future. And this can create significant difficulties for the new counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The EU countries are now seriously working on and considering all possible options for legal mechanisms for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets (about $330 billion). The European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. But against the background of the EU’s efforts to bring the Russian Federation to account as much as possible, the “accidentally” announced by the head of the European Commission the figure of losses of Ukrainian troops (100 thousand dead and wounded) may additionally activate supporters of the “winter truce”. Indeed, in recent years, both in the United States and in European countries, they are increasingly talking about the need for peace negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Since the West fears significant consequences of the continuation of active hostilities for the energy sector (energy prices) and the humanitarian crisis (new waves of mass emigration from Ukraine).
As a rule, various versions of a possible world are voiced by foreign media, for example, the conditional "Sullivan Plan". At the same time, the official position of the United States (the White House, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Defense) has not changed - Ukraine decides for itself when it will be ready for negotiations and what is considered a victory. In Ukraine, they insist on their previous positions (withdrawal of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine within the borders of 1991) and do not show readiness for any compromises in the Russian Federation either.
At the same time, informal agreements on an “unannounced” truce can be reached between the power blocs in the US and the Russian Federation (without the participation of Ukraine).
This week, the political-religious issue has intensified in the domestic politics of the country. So the SBU conducted searches in the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, and in several churches and monasteries of the UOC in Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi regions, and Transcarpathia. These searches were probably the result of waves of the informational discrediting of the UOC and accusations of "pro-Russianness" to which law enforcement agencies, in particular, the SBU, cannot but respond. Also, this situation was influenced by the issue of building a national church, the conflict between the part of President's entourage and some key UOC activists, and the playing of the religious card by part of the regional and political forces.
One part of the government team may believe that the OCU should become the basis of the national church and intensifies the process of transferring the communities of the UOC to the OCU. And, in particular, he is trying to prevent the extension of the lease agreement for the use of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra with the UOC (ends in December of this year), as well as to obtain the right to conduct divine services of the OCU on the territory of the Lavra. The other part of the team either calls to distance themselves from church processes, at least until the end of the war or considers the UOC to be the basis for the national church. Probably, the outcome of these discussions will determine the further course of events around the UOC. Until the end of the year, the filling of the State Budget of Ukraine will be carried out, including through the issuance of the hryvnia, which provoked the depreciation of the national currency and inflation growth - in October it reached 26.6%, and, by the end of the year, may exceed 30%. Taking into account the fact that by the end of 2022 the issue will add another UAH 30 billion, then the total amount will be UAH 400 billion, as was envisaged in this year's Budget.
The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are being felt around the world: world commodity prices have risen substantially, supply chain disruptions have worsened, and inflation has risen in most countries of the world. The war in Ukraine has lowered the global GDP forecast for this year by $1 trillion.
Military situation
Combat actions.
The situation in the Kharkiv region: The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began to advance in the Kupyansk direction.
In the Donbas: The Russian Army is attacking in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivsk directions. Fierce fights go under the city of Bakhmut, the RF Armed Forces are trying to bypass the city from the south. Fighting is going on in the area of settlement Kurdyumivka. Attacks were repelled in the area of the settlement of Bilogorivka and the settlement of Stelmakhivka in the Lugansk region. In the Donetsk region attacks were repulsed - in the areas of the settlements of Maryinka, Verkhnekamenske, and Spirne, Donetsk region. The RF Armed Forces were advancing in the direction of Liman.
The situation in the South: in the Kryvyi Rih and Kherson directions, shelling of settlements on the right bank of the Dnieper, which is controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is underway.
Black Sea-Azov direction: no significant changes. According to the defense forces "South" on the Kinburn Spit of the Mykolaiv region is fighting. There are nine warships of the Russian Federation in the Black Sea, including the carrier of the Caliber cruise missiles.
Combat map.
The European Commission called the number of losses of Ukrainian troops.
The head of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, believes that Russia's frozen assets should be used to restore damage to Ukraine from the war. She also proposed the creation of a special UN-backed court to investigate Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Ursula von der Leyen said that the damage caused by the Russian Federation to Ukraine is estimated at 600 billion euros. Over 20,000 civilians and more than 100,000 Ukrainian militaries have already died as a result of Russian aggression. Later, a video disappeared from Ursula von der Leyen's Twitter account, where she said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had lost more than 100 thousand killed. The video was re-uploaded and the part that says about the losses of the Ukrainian army was cut out. This is apparently because the EU wanted to demonstrate to the public the enormous amount of damage from the war unleashed by Russia (which is why the huge number of victims and dead military personnel was announced). Western countries are now seriously considering and developing all options for legal mechanisms for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets (about $330 billion). But the EU did not at all seek to inflict a reputational blow on Ukraine, therefore Ursula von der Leyen's statement about the losses, which was most likely greatly exaggerated, was subsequently cut out. EC Director of Political Communications Dana Spinant said the figures included the wounded. Recall that earlier in the United States, the head of the American General Staff, Mark Milley, said that the loss of Russian Armed Forces killed and wounded is 100 thousand people, about Ukraine, they suggested that the situation is similar.
The Office of the President commented on the removal of a video from Ursula von der Leyen's Twitter account, where she said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had lost more than 100 thousand killed. Presidential speaker Sergei Nikiforov said that information about losses is "sensitive", so the commander in chief, the defense minister, and the president can voice it. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine declares that they cannot voice losses in the war since this is proprietary information and falls under the restriction of disclosure. " At the same time, if what the head of the European Commission has said will allow the aggressor country to be held accountable, we can only support actions that will contribute to legal punishment for those who committed the genocide of the Ukrainian people,” said the head of the public relations department AFU Bogdan Senik.
In Ukraine, now the losses of Ukrainian troops are not voiced. The last figure was officially announced at the end of September by Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar - the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the war against Russia amount to more than 9 thousand, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny spoke about this at the time.
The situation regarding peace negotiations.
In the United States and European countries, they are increasingly talking about the need for peace talks to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. As a rule, various versions of a possible world are voiced by foreign media. At the same time, the official position of the United States (the White House, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Defense) has not changed. According to this, Ukraine itself decides when it will be ready for negotiations and what is considered a victory. In Ukraine, they insist on their previous positions (withdrawal of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine within the borders of 1991) and do not show any inclination to any compromises in the Russian Federation either.
Pope Francis said that the Vatican is ready to act as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine and to do everything possible in this role to help the prisoners and establish peace. To this in the Russian Federation, press secretary D. Peskov, the Vatican said that as a platform for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, Kyiv cannot now be in demand. But Moscow welcomes the intention of the Holy See to mediate the conflict.
At the same time, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in an interview with Deutsche Welle that Germany does not yet see what kind of security guarantees for Ukraine could be. According to him, the end of the war and the formulation of security guarantees are related things. And if it is not clear now how the war will end, then it is too early to talk about security guarantees.
In Ukraine, officials are increasingly talking about the prospects for the liberation of Crimea. And the Russian Federation continues to destroy the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, thus putting pressure on the authorities and Ukrainian society to force them to accept the terms of "their world."
At the same time, publicly announced by Western media the shortage of weapons in NATO countries may form an explanation for why Ukraine may receive fewer of them. And this will create difficulties for a new counter-offensive since Ukraine is largely dependent on the supply of Western weapons. In addition, the "accidentally" announced by the head of the European Commission, the figure of losses of Ukrainian troops (100 thousand) can also activate supporters of a truce in Europe and the United States.
In general, we can conclude that some of the elites of Western countries (likely, a consensus on this issue has not yet been formed) are pushing Ukraine towards a winter truce with the Russian Federation. Since the West fears significant consequences of the continuation of active hostilities for the energy sector (energy prices) and the humanitarian crisis (new waves of mass emigration from Ukraine). At the same time, it is possible that informal agreements on an informal truce can be reached between the power blocs in the United States and the Russian Federation (without the participation of Ukraine).
The internal situation in Ukraine
Shelling of energy infrastructure.
Russia continues the strategy of missile terror, intending to destroy the Ukrainian critical infrastructure. So on November 23, Russia carried out a new massive shelling of Ukrainian cities and regions, including Kyiv. The Russian Armed Forces launched about 70 cruise missiles in Ukraine from strategic aircraft and ships of the Black Sea Fleet. The air defense system of Ukraine destroyed 51 missiles and five kamikaze drones. According to Vitali Klitschko, 31 rockets were fired at Kyiv, and 21 of them were shot down. Arrivals were on the Dnieper, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, Kirovograd, Mykolaiv regions, in Kyiv and the Kyiv region, as well as in Western Ukraine.
On November 23, the country experienced a blackout, 11 regions of Ukraine were completely without electricity. Serious interruptions were observed throughout the country with the Internet, water, and heat supply. The most difficult situation has developed in Chernihiv and Cherkasy regions. The power units of all three nuclear power plants in the controlled territory were turned off. Russia damaged almost all thermal power plants and large hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine during massive strikes. Nuclear power plants in Ukraine began to work on the evening of November 24. According to Energy Minister German Galushchenko, it was not until the morning after the missile strikes that the energy system could be unified.
In Kyiv, after a rocket attack, the light disappeared for a significant part of the population, and water disappeared throughout the city. As of the morning of November 24, 70% of Kyiv remained without electricity. The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, said that the residents of Kyiv should independently think about how best to sit out the period of a complete blackout if it occurs.
After new missile strikes, Ukraine urgently requested the West to supply high-voltage equipment. Ukrenergo notes that now it is more difficult to eliminate the damage due to frost and freezing rain.
Judging by official data on the number of missiles fired, the Russian missile attack was not the most powerful, but of all the most catastrophic in terms of consequences. There may be a cumulative effect from regular missile strikes - the power engineers do not have time to eliminate the consequences of the previous attack, as soon as the next one begins.
By strikes on the energy sector in the Russian Federation, they are trying to persuade Ukraine to negotiate. With a long absence of electricity, water, and heat, Russia is trying to put pressure on Ukrainian society to induce him to demand that the authorities make concessions and fulfill the peaceful conditions of the Russian leadership.
At the same time, Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are already harming not only Ukraine but also neighboring countries. Another consequence of the missile attack is a large-scale blackout in neighboring Moldova. The country's authorities said that " failures occur outside the control zone of the distribution system operator ." That is, in Ukraine. As energy expert Sergei Tofilat explained to the Moldovan media, Moldova receives more than 80% of its electricity through the Isaccea-Vulcanesti line, which passes through Ukraine and the Transnistrian region and then reaches Chisinau. When there is shelling in Ukraine, this line is automatically disconnected, and we are left without electricity." The Moldovan Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to give clarifications in connection with the power outage after the attacks of the Russian army on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said: " Russia has plunged Moldova into darkness ."
Economic situation.
Russian missile attacks continue to destroy the country's infrastructure and cause significant damage to the Ukrainian economy. After the seventh attack of the Russian Armed Forces on energy infrastructure facilities, as of November 29, the shortage of electricity in Ukraine was 30%. Electricity production in Ukraine currently covers 70% of needs, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said. According to him, the load can already be distributed among all consumers in such a way that the light is turned on for 5-6 hours a day. In Kyiv, by order of Ukrenergo, it is necessary to reduce power consumption by 60%. At the same time, DTEK stated that they are trying to supply electricity to each client for 2-3 hours twice a day.
D. Shmygal also noted that the EBRD and the Netherlands allocated EUR 372 million to NPC Ukrenergo for the prompt repair of damage from Russian attacks. Norway also allocated 200 million euros to Naftogaz Ukrainy for the purchase of gas. The EBRD allocates another 300 million euros for these purposes, and the Cabinet of Ministers transferred UAH 12.7 billion to Naftogaz. for additional purchases of gas for storage. The Prime Minister of Ukraine believes that there are enough energy resources in Ukraine to get through the winter stably, the country has accumulated 14 billion cubic meters of gas in storage facilities and 1.3 million tons of coal in warehouses.
But Ukraine has faced big problems related to the equipment for the restoration of the energy system, because the reserve has already been used, and it will not be possible to purchase it from other countries. This was stated by ex-Minister of Energy Ivan Plachkov. He believes that it is necessary to raise funds and place orders with private companies for the manufacture of new units - but in any case, they can be ready no earlier than in 4 months, that is, already in the spring. The United States will allocate $53 million to purchase the necessary power grid equipment for Ukraine.
An additional tool for stabilizing the energy system of Ukraine can be the import of electricity. Ukraine has already carried out a test import of electricity from Romania. Test deliveries are necessary to check the technical feasibility of importing electricity from Europe, if necessary.
That is, the process of restoring the energy system, as well as the functioning of the country's economy, largely depends on the help of international partners.
According to the European Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarcic, the destruction of Ukraine's energy and infrastructure reaches a critical point after the attacks.
Daniil Getmantsev, head of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy, said the latest rocket attacks have resulted in $1 billion in direct losses. “The Ministry of Economy has already adjusted its macro forecast in the direction of increasing the fall in GDP to 39% in October. That is, as a result of the attacks in October, respectively, in November, the attacks did not decrease, but increased. Therefore, the fall will continue,” the head of the financial committee informed. The Ministry of Finance believes that the fall in Ukraine's GDP by the end of this year will be 33-35%.
President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said that the restoration of Ukraine will require more than $1 trillion.
The National Bank promised the US embassy to completely curtail the issue of the hryvnia from 2023 to cover the state budget deficit, which Ukraine launched at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation. From February 24 to November 25, 2022, the hryvnia issuance, according to official statistics, has already amounted to UAH 370 billion, $9.4 billion at the current exchange rate. For this amount, the regulator directly bought government bonds (domestic government bonds) of the Ministry of Finance, which was forbidden by the regulator before the war. It is expected that in December the issue will amount to another +30 billion UAH. Inflation growth in October reached 26.6%, and, by the end of the year, may exceed 30%. Taking into account the fact that by the end of 2022 the issue will add another UAH 30 billion, then the total amount will be UAH 400 billion, as was envisaged in this year's Budget.
The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are being felt around the world. In particular, supply chain disruptions worsened, global commodity prices soared, and inflation rose in much of the world. The forecast for world GDP for this year has decreased by $1 trillion, up 2.8% year on year. In 2023, global economic growth will slow to 1.2%, predicts the Institute of International Finance.
Eurozone economy suffered the most from the war, according to the forecast, it will decrease by 2%. In the United States, GDP growth is expected by 1%, and in Latin America - by 1.2%. EIU data indicate that Russia's GDP will suffer the most among the G20 countries. By the end of 2022, its economy will shrink by 10% due to sanctions, compared to an initial growth estimate of 2.6%.
The situation around the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).
This week, the political-religious issue has intensified in the domestic politics of the country. So the SBU conducted searches in the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, and several churches and monasteries of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) in Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi regions, and Transcarpathia. According to the intelligence service, the SBU, the National Police, and the National Guard carried out counterintelligence activities there " as part of the SBU’s systemic work to counter the explosive activities of Russian special services in Ukraine .”
But by and large, these searches are not brutal. And perhaps they are a response to public opinion. After the waves of the informational discrediting of the UOC, law enforcement agencies, in particular, the SBU, cannot but react, since they will be accused of not working properly in the field of national security. So the searches may be a continuation of the story with the performance of the song "Mother Rus'" in one of the temples of the Lavra, to which the SBU promised to respond as propaganda of the "Russian world". The priest, during whose service the song was played, was removed from worship. And the abbot of the Lavra, Metropolitan Pavel of Vyshgorod and Chornobyl, commenting on the incident in his video message, stressed that the song was not a prayer service and that the UOC is praying for Ukraine and peace.
In particular, the UOC constantly reminds us that they support Ukraine from the first days of the war and condemn the Russian invasion. And to win, they call on society to unite, and not " ignite an internal war." A statement by the Synod of the UOC appeared, which called " unproven and unfounded " accusations against the UOC in collaboration activities. " The fact that searches have recently been carried out in some monasteries and the clergy of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church cannot but cause concern. Unfortunately, serious charges have already been brought against some clergy. In this regard, we insist on the objectivity of the actions of law enforcement officers. The investigation must be impartial and not be accompanied by unsubstantiated accusations," the statement said.
Deputies from the European Solidarity party of Petro Poroshenko announced that they had introduced a bill to stop the activities of religious organizations in Ukraine associated with the Russian Orthodox Church.
The head of the State Service for Ethnopolitics and Freedom of Conscience, Elena Bogdan, said in an interview with Facts ICTV that The Ukrainian Orthodox Church is not included in this category, and there is no connection between the UOC and the Russian Orthodox Church. " The document in which the connection with the ROC was indicated was the charter of the religious association as a whole, which, accordingly, does not apply to a specific legal entity. Such a charter, according to the results of the Council (May 27, 2022), was presented to us in a new edition. And all the theses that determined the relationship of subordination and dependence were removed from it. For example, the fact that the primate of the UOC is a member of the Synod was removed. The thesis that the UOC is part of the ROC was also removed, " Bohdan noted. That is, organizational relations between the ROC and the UOC have been terminated, but the canonical connection with other local churches through the ROC has been left (although communication with them is carried out directly).
It can also be assumed that the SBU searches are somehow related to the fact that the authorities have not abandoned their plans to create a single national church in Ukraine, but there are discussions about which church will be the platform for this. One part of the government team believes that the OCU should become its basis and intensifies the process of transferring the UOC communities to the OCU. And, in particular, he is trying to prevent the extension of the lease agreement for the use of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra with the UOC (ends in December of this year), as well as to obtain the right to conduct divine services of the OCU on the territory of the Lavra. The other part of the team either calls to distance themselves from church processes, at least until the end of the war or considers the UOC to be the basis for the national church. Probably, the outcome of these discussions will determine the further course of events around the UOC.
At the same time, the structures of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) were created and functioned with the support of P. Poroshenko and European Solidarity. The strengthening of the OCU is the strengthening of P. Poroshenko. And, likely, the strengthening of the positions of the OCU (such as the transfer of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra) will also entail the strengthening of the positions of the main competitor of President V. Zelensky - P. Poroshenko. Also, the OCU remains a partially recognized religious organization (4 out of 15 Orthodox churches have recognized it) with the largest number of parishes, priests, and believers in Ukraine.
The situation around Ukraine.
The European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
The European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. The resolution was supported by 494 MEPs and opposed by 58. It calls on Brussels to create an appropriate legal framework and consider adding Russia to the list of countries sponsoring terrorism. It is also reported that the European Commission may issue a directive in the coming days that will allow the confiscation of the assets of individuals trying to circumvent sanctions against Russia.
According to the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the EU, Vsevolod Chentsov, the resolution should become "a political and moral statement that will change the perception of the Russian government and establish it as a criminal regime." The call of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to recognize the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism in 2022. We recall that Ukraine officially assigned Russia the status of a terrorist state in April.
In general, although the resolution of the European Parliament was adopted, it is not binding and will not yet have any legal consequences for Russia. Since the European Union does not have a legal basis for recognizing a third country as a state that supports terrorism. There are also no documents that would regulate sanctions against a state sponsoring terrorism or somehow describe the rules for interaction with such countries. But in the future, the issue of recognizing the Russian Federation as a country sponsoring terrorism will also arise in the United States and individual EU and NATO countries. Which, in turn, will complicate the diplomatic relations of Western countries with the Russian Federation. And, perhaps, it will serve as another legal reason for the confiscation of Russian frozen assets (about $330 billion).
Let's take a look at those who have made similar decisions before:
On November 21, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly recognized Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
On October 26, the Polish Senate officially recognized Russia as a terrorist regime and called on the international community to support the investigation of war crimes in Ukraine.
On October 18, the Estonian Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
On October 13, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recognized the authorities in Russia as a terrorist regime in response to massive rocket attacks on Ukraine on October 10.
On August 11, the Latvian parliament declared Russia a state sponsor of terrorism and called the war "targeted genocide against the Ukrainian people."
On May 10, the Seimas of Lithuania unanimously supported a resolution in which Russia is regarded as "a state that supports and carries out terrorism."
A similar resolution is going to be considered in the Netherlands. The US is in no hurry to include Russia in its list of countries sponsoring terrorism. As explained by US Ambassador to the OSCE James Gilmour, this could interfere with the implementation of the grain deal.
Deliveries of weapons to Ukraine.
The advancement of Ukrainian troops at the front is now directly dependent on Western arms supplies. In addition, due to the Russian shelling of energy infrastructure, Ukraine is in dire need of new air defense systems. In particular, the NATO countries are discussing the possible supply of Patriot air defense systems (air defense) to Kyiv. considers the only way to peace in Ukraine is the constant supply of weapons to the country. In total, NATO countries have provided about $40 billion in weapons to Ukraine, roughly the size of France's annual defense budget. The total declared amount of financial and military assistance has already reached - 93 billion euros as of October 1, 2022.
But lately, statements have been circulating in the Western media that there are certain problems with the supply of weapons in NATO countries. Specifically, as of September, the US military had a limited number of 155mm artillery shells in its inventory and a limited number of guided missiles, rocket launchers, howitzers, Javelins, and Stingers. And the intensity of arms consumption in Ukraine is very high. Ukrainians fired between 6,000 and 7,000 artillery rounds every day in the Donbas last summer, a senior NATO official said. The Russians fired between 40,000 and 50,000 rounds a day. By comparison, the US produces only 15,000 rounds each month. According to NATO officials, the amount of artillery used by both sides of the conflict is staggering. The day of the war in Ukraine is the month of the war in Afghanistan. Poland's Ambassador to NATO Tomasz Szatkowski warehouses of military equipment of NATO countries is empty because of assistance to Ukraine. According to one NATO official, the smaller countries have exhausted their potential, and 20 out of 30 of its members are "pretty exhausted." But the remaining 10 could still provide more, he suggested, especially the larger allies. This will include France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. The European Union has approved 3.1 billion euros ($3.2 billion) to repay member states for what they provide to Ukraine, but that fund, the European Peace Fund, is almost 90% depleted.
The Russians also have their resupply problems. They use fewer artillery shells now, but they have a lot of them, even if some of them are old and less reliable. According to Forbes, Russia's direct military spending for the 9 months of the war is approximately $82 billion. In 2021, all of Russia's budget revenues amounted to $340 billion. That is, the Russian Federation has already spent a quarter of last year's income on military operations. When assessing the cost of arming the Russian Federation, it should be taken into account that a significant part of Russian equipment and shells were produced back in Soviet times, and the Russian Federation did not spend its resources on them (all the countries of the USSR, including Ukraine, did this).
In the same way, some of the weapons supplied to Ukraine were produced several decades ago (in the 60-the 70s) and their cost does not correspond to the assessment by modern standards.
Due to the high intensity of the fighting and the consumption of weapons in Ukraine, likely, there are indeed certain problems with the supply of weapons in NATO countries. But it is noteworthy that this problem has become quite privately covered publicly, which, in essence, can form explanations for why Ukraine will receive fewer weapons in the future.
Here we can assume that this is a way to push Ukraine to some form of truce with the Russian Federation. Maybe even just for the winter in connection with the high risks of a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine (due to the destruction of the energy infrastructure), leading to a new wave of refugees in the EU and an increase in the costs of the West and the risks of military and nuclear escalation.
At the same time, the supply of Western weapons and financial support to Ukraine will continue. Since the official position of the US White House, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Defense has not changed, Ukraine decides for itself when it will be ready for negotiations. In Ukraine, they insist on the withdrawal of Russian troops from the entire territory of the country within the 1991 borders.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
