US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius visited Ukraine this week. These visits take place against the backdrop of public disagreements in the strategy for continuing the war between the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, V. Zaluzhny, as well as publications in Western media that suggest Ukraine switch to strategic defense. Therefore, Western partners may consider various options for changing the strategy for waging war in Ukraine, which must be agreed upon with the Ukrainian leadership.
Formally, both the visit of L. Austin and the visit of B. Pistorius demonstrate that the United States and its allies are ready to continue to support Ukraine militarily.
It is known that the Pentagon also announced a new package of military assistance to Ukraine worth $100 million. Germany will allocate an army assistance package worth more than 1.3 billion euros. Also announced for November 22 is the 17th meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine. About 50 countries will take part in it.
It can be assumed that against the confrontation between Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress regarding further assistance to Ukraine, the American military leadership needs to agree on a new action strategy, considering a possible reduction in funding.
It is possible that the scenario of Ukraine’s transition to strategic defense was seriously discussed, at least until the end of the elections in the United States.
The allies may also try to resolve the public disagreements between Ukraine's military and political leadership. This refers to the reaction in the Office of the President to the article by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, V. Zaluzhny, for The Economist. With his comment in an interview with The Sun, President V. Zelensky called on V. Zaluzhny not to engage in politics, confirming the friction between Ukraine's political and military leadership.
Remember that the political leadership insists on continuing the counteroffensive, while the military leadership says there is no such possibility today. But in general, V. Zaluzhny's vision of the course of the war is in many ways comparable to the position of the American military, so the visit of the US Secretary of Defense to Ukraine will strengthen his position.
President V. Zelensky told Western media (The Sun and Bloomberg) that the Russian Federation plans to change the leadership of Ukraine by the end of 2023, "using any means available to them. " He also noted that he had already survived 5-6 assassination attempts. V. Zelensky said that Ukraine will not seek to make peace with the Russian Federation "at any cost." Ukraine will continue to struggle, but victory will be possible if allies such as Great Britain, Europe, and America support Ukraine.
After V. Zelensky's statement about the Russian Federation preparing "Maidan-3" in Ukraine, some media in Ukraine drew an analogy with the so-called "Shatun" plan under ex-president P. Poroshenko - in the sense that now any manifestations of dissatisfaction with the authorities can be will be attributed to the assistance of the Russian Federation. Let us remind you that in 2021, V. Zelensky has already stated that the circle of oligarch Rinat Akhmetov was preparing a coup in Ukraine with the assistance of the Russian Federation.
In general, the primary "preventative" against any attempts to organize new Maidans or coups for society is the ongoing war, against which any such shocks are perceived as actions that threaten the collapse of the state and its complete defeat. Martial law is in effect, during which protests are prohibited. Besides, the President's support level remains relatively high, although critical sentiment in society continues to grow.
V. Zelensky announced the preparation of the Russian Federation for "Maidan-3" at a time when the situation with financial assistance for Ukraine became more complicated. This statement can be considered a "continuation" of the phrase also said by Bloomberg that without support, we - that is, Ukraine - will retreat. And a little earlier, in another interview, he said that if the West does not help, Ukraine will lose the war. Thus, the Ukrainian leadership, using public tools, is trying to influence its Western allies to maintain or even increase assistance.
The problem is that, for Ukraine, victory means the liberation of all territories seized by Russia since 2014. For the West, it is essential to preserve Ukraine as a state, and within the borders of which territory it does not matter much. It is necessary to prevent the Russian Federation from absorbing all or most of the country's territory so that it does not create threats to other countries in Eastern and Central Europe. And V. Zelensky, bringing to the fore the possibility of his overthrow, is trying to convey to the allies the need to support the Ukrainian leadership at the head with him, or Ukraine will ultimately lose the war. The Russian Federation will achieve its goals and create a security crisis in Europe. President V. Zelensky clarifies that only maintaining stable Western assistance or expanding it will prevent such a situation.
The problematic situation at the front in Ukraine provokes new publications in Western media about the deadlock in the war and the need to find new strategies.
Foreign Affairs published an article, "A New Look at Success in Ukraine," the central message is that Ukraine needs to move to a defensive strategy, moving away from its current offensive strategy. Specifically, it says the United States should begin consulting with Ukraine and its European partners on a strategy based on Ukraine's willingness to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia while shifting its military focus from offense to defense. The exact terms of the truce—the timing, the precise location of the contact line, procedures for the withdrawal of weapons and forces, monitoring and enforcement provisions—must be worked out under broad international control, most under the auspices of either the UN or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
At the same time, the allies must provide long-term economic and military assistance and guarantee Ukraine's independence. New proposal as an allied commitment to Ukraine - The West should offer Ukraine unique relations with NATO and the EU for an indefinite transition period. The new commitment will be based on Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which provides immediate consultation whenever a member's "territorial integrity, political independence or security" is threatened.
Ukraine's financing process continues to become more complex. Allies are beginning to talk about the need to reduce Ukraine’s dependence on external borrowings and search for internal sources of financing. Thus, at a meeting with the Ukrainian leadership, the US Special Representative for Ukraine, Penny Pritzker, proposed discussing how Ukraine can provide for its economy without American help. Against this backdrop, EU countries also say making significant long-term commitments to Ukraine will be challenging as their domestic budgets are shrinking.
Currently, Ukraine's main budget expenditures are heavily dependent on Western funding. And if the allies decide to reduce aid or stop it altogether, the situation with the budget and government finances could become critical.
The US House of Representatives extended temporary government funding to avoid a shutdown without allocating funds to Ukraine and Israel (as the Democrats tried to do). In general, adopting the US budget opens up the possibility of Congress considering the issue of financing Ukraine and Israel, which is a positive development. It is predicted that aid packages for Ukraine and Israel could be adopted before the end of the year. Congress must allocate the money before Christmas (December 25). At the same time, aid to Israel may be accepted separately, and cash for Ukraine may be tied to the problem of control over the southern border.
This means that the issue of financing Ukraine is still "up in the air" and will remain the subject of internal political discussions between Democrats and Republicans on the eve of the election campaign in the United States. That is, funding for Ukraine may decrease or become unsystematic.
For US President D. Biden (as well as for the Ukrainian leadership), it will be essential to keep aid to Israel and Ukraine in one bill so that Republicans in the House of Representatives will pass it. Otherwise, the Republicans will be able to fully work out their main election narrative against D. Biden about the ineffectiveness and generalization of his foreign policy and the Ukrainian case, in particular.
The issue of extending funding for Ukraine was the main subject of discussion during the visit of the head of the OPU, A. Ermak, to the United States. His main goal was to convince representatives of the radical Republican group in Congress to provide additional funding to Ukraine. He tried to convey to his American colleagues the importance of urgent consideration of US President Biden's budget request to finance other expenses to assist Ukraine.
Also, A. Ermak's visit was associated with possible future personnel changes within Ukraine. The issue of replacing the head of the Government of Ukraine was probably also considered. Therefore, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, one of the desired candidates for prime minister from the United States, was present at meetings with US officials. The issue of personnel reshuffles in the Office of the President will also be resolved (in particular, regarding the replacement of the deputy head of the Office of President (OP) O. Tatarov).
At the front, Ukrainian and Russian troops are trying to seize the military initiative without significant territorial changes. In the Donetsk direction, heavy fighting continues for the city of Avdiivka, which is actually surrounded on three sides.
Since last week, the Russian Armed Forces have also been trying to regain previously lost positions south of Bakhmut in the settlement area. Klishchiivka.
In the direction of Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had partial success near the settlement. Verbove managed to advance near the settlement of Rabotino. Novoprokopivka. On the left bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region, Ukrainian troops occupied the village of Krynki and are beginning to transfer heavy equipment there. For their part, the RF Armed Forces are trying to interrupt the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area of units.
During one year and nine months of this war, Ukraine was able to liberate 50% of the territories occupied by the Russian Federation. This figure was given by the head of the Presidential Office, A. Ermak, during his visit to the United States. At the same time, the Russians left the most significant part of these territories - in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions, and Kherson - almost without a fight.
In general, Ukraine will try to continue the counteroffensive, but its active phase has passed, and to build up new attacks, Ukrainian troops need new resources (supplies of Western weapons and financing). At the same time, the allied countries still needed to provide Ukraine with the required amount to achieve a fundamental turning point in the war. Considering this, the next phase of the war looks even more difficult for Ukraine, even considering the transition to defense. The Russian Federation also likely lacks the resources to carry out a significant offensive this year but is relying on a strategy of attrition of Ukraine, hoping to break through the Ukrainian Armed Forces positions.
Prospects for Ukraine's accession to the EU. Negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU may begin in December this year, as Charles Michel, head of the European Council, said during his visit to Ukraine. But first, it becomes clear that the entry may be delayed and occur much later. As the head of the European Council noted, the decision to begin negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU should not be perceived as "something decided in advance." Among current EU members, the prospect of Ukraine's accession, due to the significant increase in costs, will cause great debate. If Ukraine joins the EU, the subsidies it will be entitled to will be substantial. Also, not everyone now supports attempts to revise the main EU treaty, abandon the unanimous voting rule, and adopt the "majority rule" instead (such a change would significantly increase Ukraine's chances of becoming a member of the EU).
So, in particular, Hungarian Prime Minister V. Orban said that Ukraine is not ready for EU membership and Hungary will not support the start of negotiations. It must be understood that Hungary's position on the Ukraine issue is not another geopolitical game of this country but a strategic position supported by many conservative elites in Europe, increasing the importance of Hungary for geopolitical players (USA, China, Russia).
Combat map.
Warfare.
The situation in Avdiivka.
The situation around Avdiivka is challenging for the Ukrainian troops. The Russian Federation has concentrated significant forces around here and relies on the neighboring city of Donetsk in this attack.
With heavy losses, the Russian army was able to advance around the city of Avdiivka, essentially surrounding it on three sides. And now Ukrainian troops are fighting in a semi-encirclement, with positions under constant fire from Russian artillery and drones. The city of Avdiivka itself is already in a "bag," not in a "cauldron," but in a "bag." The width of the corridor that leads into the city and is controlled by Ukrainian troops is only about 6 kilometers. The Ukrainian military leadership had to withdraw a significant part of the artillery and air defense systems from the territory of Avdiivka, which further intensified Russian attacks using aircraft, etc. The situation is reminiscent of the battles for Bakhmut in the winter and spring of this year.
By and large, the situation with the city of Avdiivka was lost when Russian troops managed to wedge into the settlements of Krasnogorivka and Vodyane from the north and South. And if the reserves of the 3rd and 47th brigades, now being transferred from the South of Ukraine, cannot carry out effective counterattacks, we could lose the city of Avdiivka in the coming weeks or months.
At the same time, from a military point of view, the battle for Avdiivka is insignificant and has little effect on the overall fighting situation. Still, this battle is important from a political point of view. If the Russian army manages to capture the city of Avdiivka, this may mean that the Russian Federation has again seized the military initiative and will continue its offensive.
The loss of Avdiivka could also politically reduce Ukraine's gains during the counteroffensive in the South and strengthen the voices of those elites in the West who advocate reconsidering the goals of the war or even negotiations with Russia (for example, the Republicans in the United States).
It could also reduce confidence in winning the war inside Ukraine and provoke complications in military and political leadership relations.
Suppose Ukraine defends the city of Avdiivka, and the Russian Federation loses its accumulated resources in the offensive. In that case, this will strengthen the position of Ukraine's allies and public opinion in Ukraine on the eve of a brutal winter.
In general, territorial changes at the front play only an essential political and informational role, inspiring or disappointing the warring societies. But from the point of view of strategic prospects for reformatting or ending the war, their influence is limited.
The goal of the Russian Federation on the eve of the war was to create conditions under which Western countries, led by the United States, would accept the Russian security model in Eastern Europe and the post-Soviet space. But the likely capture of Avdiivka does not bring the Russian Federation any closer to these goals. It is evident that even after this, the war will continue.
Internal situation in the country.
President of Ukraine V. Zelensky announced the threat of “Maidan-3 ”.
Speaking to Bloomberg reporters, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that the Russian Federation allegedly has a plan to organize a "Maidan" in Ukraine and change the country's leadership. According to him, this plan is called "Maidan 3" in the Kremlin. It is to sow a split in Ukrainian society, creating "chaos," which will allow V. Zelensky to be removed. The representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Andrei Yusov, commenting on the President's words to NV, said that the Russian Federation has intensified its attempts to provoke conflicts within Ukraine. After V. Zelensky's statement about the Russian Federation allegedly had plans to overthrow him, some media in Ukraine drew an analogy with the so-called "Shatun" plan under ex-president P. Poroshenko - in the sense that now any manifestations of dissatisfaction with the authorities will be allowed attributed to the assistance of the Russian Federation.
Later, V. Zelensky gave an interview to the British publication The Sun, where he also stated that, according to available data, the Russian Federation plans to replace the President of Ukraine by the end of 2023, “using any means available to them.” He also noted that he had already survived 5-6 assassination attempts.
V. Zelensky said that Ukraine will not seek to make peace with the Russian Federation “at any cost.” Ukraine will continue to struggle, but victory will be possible if allies such as Britain, Europe, and America remain united with Ukraine.
Ukraine is at the center of the global risks of World War III. The war in Israel has distracted the world's attention from Ukraine, and the Kremlin will try to stir up trouble in the Balkans.
V. Zelensky called Commander-in-Chief V. Zaluzhny not to engage in politics, as this " does not lead to the unity of the nation .” " Then he must enter politics, and then he will not be able to engage in war. If you manage a war, remember that tomorrow you will be involved in politics or elections, then in words and on the front line, you behave like a politician and not like the military. I believe this is a huge mistake. With all due respect to General Zaluzhny and all the commanders on the battlefield, there is an absolute understanding of the hierarchy, and that's it. There cannot be two, three, four, five," said President in an interview with The Sun.
In general, the primary "preventative" against any attempts to organize new Maidans or coups for society is the ongoing war, against which any such shocks are perceived as actions that threaten the collapse of the state and its complete defeat. Martial law is in effect, during which protests are prohibited. Besides, the President's support level remains relatively high, although critical sentiment in society continues to grow.
V. Zelensky announced the preparation of the Russian Federation for "Maidan 3" at a time when the situation with financial assistance to Ukraine from allies became more complicated. The President's statement can be considered a continuation of the phrase (for Bloomberg) that Ukraine may retreat without support. Earlier, in another interview, he said that if the West does not help, Ukraine will lose the war. Simply put, it is more of an attempt to influence Western allies.
The problem is that for Ukraine, victory means the liberation of all territories seized by Russia since 2014. For the Western allies, it is essential to preserve Ukraine as a state, and within the borders of which territory it does not matter much. It is necessary to prevent the Russian Federation from absorbing all or most of the country's territory so that it does not create threats to other countries in Eastern and Central Europe. And V. Zelensky, bringing to the fore the possibility of his overthrow, is saying: continue to support Ukraine and me, or I will not exist, and we will ultimately lose the war. The Russian Federation will achieve its goals and create a security crisis in Europe. President V. Zelensky clarifies that only maintaining stable Western assistance or expanding it will prevent such a situation.
Regarding V. Zelensky’s comment in an interview with The Sun regarding the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny. The President, in fact, publicly confirmed the existence of inevitable disagreements between the political and military leadership of the country, as well as the fact that one of their main reasons is the political ambitions of V. Zaluzhny.
The SBU opened a criminal case against former MP from the Svoboda party and university teacher Irina Farion.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) opened a criminal case against former MP from the Svoboda party and university teacher Irina Farion. The reason was I. Farion’s statements about Russian-speaking military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The scandal began after her interview, in which she sharply criticized Ukrainian military personnel who continue to communicate in Russian, saying that she "cannot call them Ukrainians." Not yet known whether the criminal cases initiated will result in charges and court decisions, Irina Farion has long and consistently worked with xenophobic narratives that influence the creation of conflicts and confrontations in Ukraine on linguistic grounds. However, the government's reaction to its new attack against military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (the criminal case of the SBU, the appeals of the Commissioner for Human Rights) shows that the political atmosphere in Ukraine, although under pressure, is changing. It is under pressure from Russian-speaking military personnel and the anger of the army that law enforcement agencies are forced to respond. This situation shows that the army and war heroes can seriously transform state humanitarian policy in the future, and it will be difficult for the authorities to resist them from a political position. Also, the situation around Farion may be a “warning shot” towards all those who like to speculate on the language issue in anticipation of the adoption of new legislation expanding the rights to use their native language by national minorities in Ukraine at the request of the European Union.
The situation around Ukraine.
The issue of financing Ukraine.
Allies, in particular the United States, are beginning to talk about the need to reduce Ukraine's dependence on external borrowings and search for internal sources of financing. Thus, at a meeting with the Ukrainian leadership, the US Special Representative for Ukraine, Penny Pritzker, proposed discussing how Ukraine can provide for its economy without American help. Currently, Ukraine's main budget expenditures are heavily dependent on Western funding. And if the allies decide to reduce aid or stop it altogether, the situation with the budget and government finances could become critical.
The US House of Representatives extended temporary government funding to avoid a shutdown without allocating funds to Ukraine and Israel (as the Democrats tried to do). This means that the issue of financing Ukraine is still "up in the air" and will remain the subject of internal political discussions between Democrats and Republicans on the eve of the election campaign in the United States. That is, funding for Ukraine may decrease or become unsystematic.
The United States still claims that it is capable of supporting both Ukraine and Israel at the same time, but this requires a decision from Congress. It is predicted that aid packages for Ukraine and Israel could be adopted before the end of the year. Congress must allocate the money before Christmas (December 25). At the same time, aid to Israel may be accepted separately, and cash for Ukraine may be tied to the problem of control over the southern border.
It will be essential for President D. Biden (as well as for the Ukrainian leadership) to keep aid to Israel and Ukraine in one bill so that Republicans in the House of Representatives will pass it. Otherwise, the Republicans will be able to fully work out their main election narrative against D. Biden about the ineffectiveness and generalization of his foreign policy and the Ukrainian case, in particular. But in general, the adoption of the US budget opens up the possibility of Congress considering the issue of financing Ukraine and Israel after November 23, which is a positive development.
The issue of extending funding for Ukraine was the main subject of discussion during the visit of the head of the OPU, A. Ermak, to the United States. His main goal was to convince representatives of the radical Republican group in Congress to provide additional funding to Ukraine. In particular, A. Ermak met with members of both houses of the US Congress, with the Republican Minority Leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell and Senators John Cornyn, Tom Cotton, Mark Rubio, Susan Collins, and John Hoeven. A. Ermak noted that such meetings in themselves are "another confirmation of the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States." He tried to convey to his American colleagues the importance of urgent consideration of US President Biden's budget request to finance additional expenses to assist Ukraine.
Also, A. Ermak's visit was associated with possible future personnel changes within Ukraine. The issue of replacing the head of the Government of Ukraine was probably also considered. Therefore, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, one of the desired candidates for prime minister from the United States, was present at meetings with US officials. The issue of personnel reshuffles in the Office of the President will also be resolved (in particular, regarding the replacement of the deputy head of OP O. Tatarov). This trip of the head of OP A. Ermak is also connected with the detention of MP A. Dubinsky and his accusation of treason - an attempt to deprive I. Kolomoisky (to whom there are many legal claims from the United States and Great Britain) and his entourage of some tools of influence on Ukrainian information space. Most importantly, A. Dubinsky and A. Derkach publicly advocated investigating the case of Hunter Biden (son of US President D. Biden) in Ukraine. They also supported the theory that it was Ukraine, not Russia, that interfered in the 2016 US presidential election.
The head of the OPU, Andriy Ermak, during his visit to the United States, said that the Ukrainian authorities do not agree to join NATO without occupied territories since their goal is to reach the 1991 borders. Earlier, former NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen proposed that Ukraine join the alliance without territories captured by Russia. For its part, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that "Ukraine's entry into NATO in any form is unacceptable for Russia." Thus, in fact, both Ukraine and the Russian Federation consider A. Rasmussen's idea could be more feasible.
Currently, publications about the deadlock at the front in Ukraine and the search for new strategies in the war are multiplying in the Western media. Foreign Affairs published an article, "A New Look at Success in Ukraine," the central message is that Ukraine needs to move to a defensive strategy, moving away from its current offensive strategy. In particular, it says:
- Ukraine's counteroffensive has stalled, and the situation at the front has reached a dead end.
- Political willingness to continue providing military and economic support to Ukraine has weakened in both the United States and Europe.
- Kyiv's approach to waging war involves high costs and low prospects. A ceasefire would save lives, allow economic reconstruction to begin, and allow Ukraine to use incoming Western weapons to invest in its long-term security rather than quickly expend weapons on a stalemate battlefield.
- The United States should begin consultations with Ukraine and its European partners on a strategy based on Ukraine's willingness to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia while shifting its military emphasis from attack to defense. The exact terms of the truce—the timing, the precise location of the contact line, procedures for the withdrawal of weapons and forces, monitoring and enforcement provisions—must be worked out under broad international control, most under the auspices of either the UN or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
- Allies must provide long-term economic and military assistance and guarantee Ukraine's independence.
New proposal as allied obligations towards Ukraine: - The West should offer Ukraine unique relations with NATO and the EU for an indefinite transition period. The new commitment will be based on Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which provides immediate consultation whenever a member's "territorial integrity, political independence or security" is threatened.
Visit of the US and German defense ministers to Ukraine.
The visits of the US and German defense ministers to Ukraine indicate that Western partners may be considering options for changing the strategy for waging war in Ukraine, which must be agreed upon with the Ukrainian leadership. The recent increase in publications in Western media about the deadlock at the front in Ukraine and the search for new war strategies can prove this.
On November 20, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin officially visited Ukraine. The American delegation in Kyiv also included the Commander of the US European Command and the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, Christopher Cavoli.
He was also supposed to discuss with President V. Zelensky, Minister of Defense R. Umerov, and Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General V. Zaluzhny the long-term vision of the future of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
On November 21, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius arrived in Kyiv. He announced a new military aid package worth more than 1.3 billion euros. It will include 20 thousand 155-mm caliber shells, anti-tank mines, etc. There will be no long-range Taurus missiles in this package. Germany will transfer four IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine. But the first of the promised systems will arrive by the end of 2024 and the rest by 2025.
Formally, both the visit of L. Austin and the visit of B. Pistorius demonstrate that the United States and its allies are ready to continue to support Ukraine militarily.
It is known that the Pentagon also announced a new package of military assistance to Ukraine worth $100 million. And on November 22, the 17th meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine will take place. About 50 countries will take part in it.
It can be assumed that against the confrontation between Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress regarding further assistance to Ukraine, the American military leadership needs to agree on a new action strategy, considering a possible reduction in funding.
It is possible that the scenario of Ukraine’s transition to strategic defense was seriously discussed, at least until the end of the elections in the United States.
Also, L. Austin may try to resolve the public disagreements between Ukraine's military and political leadership (meaning the reaction in the Office of the President to the article by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny for The Economist). In particular, the political leadership insists on continuing the counteroffensive, while the military leadership says there is no such possibility today. But in general, V. Zaluzhny's vision of the course of the war is in many ways comparable to the position of the American military, so the visit of the US Secretary of Defense to Ukraine will strengthen his position.
Article by US President D. Biden in The Washington Post.
In a column in The Washington Post, D. Biden said that the United States will not retreat from the challenge of Putin and Hamas. The strategy that the Biden Administration will continue to pursue in the Middle East, Europe, and around the world is that the United States is a nation that brings together allies and partners to resist aggressors.
In his address, D. Biden sought to convince Americans and the world community that the war in Ukraine and the Middle East could have significant consequences, the risks of conflict could spread around the world, and the costs of resolving them would only increase if efforts are not focused on neutralizing these conflicts. He noted that both Putin and Hamas are fighting to wipe out democracy from the face of the earth. And America cannot and will not allow this to happen. In general, the content of the article suggests that the campaign for the re-election of President D. Biden will mainly focus on foreign policy and the defense of the liberal international order.
The election campaign for the current President D. Biden as a whole promises to be brutal. His main Republican rival is D. Trump is already ahead of him in five of the six key states. The loss of D. Biden's team in Congress regarding the issue of financing Ukraine will only worsen the situation and make his re-election impossible.
Prospects for Ukraine's accession to the EU.
During his visit to Kyiv, the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, said that he expected a "difficult" meeting at the start of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU in December this year. In particular, some EU member states have clarified that they "would like to think carefully" before deciding on the next step in the process. The head of the European Council also noted that the decision to begin negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU should not be perceived as “something decided in advance.”
Negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU may begin before the end of this year. But first, it becomes clear that the acquisition may be delayed and occur much later. Among current EU members, the prospect of Ukraine's entry due to the significant increase in costs will cause debate. If Ukraine joins the EU, the subsidies it will be entitled to will be substantial. Also, not everyone now supports attempts to revise the main EU treaty, abandon the unanimous voting rule, and adopt the "majority rule" instead (such a change would significantly increase Ukraine’s chances of becoming a member of the EU).
So, in particular, Hungarian Prime Minister V. Orban said that Ukraine is not ready for EU membership and Hungary will not support the start of negotiations. It must be understood that Hungary's position on the Ukraine issue is not another geopolitical game of this country but a strategic position supported by many conservative European elites, increasing Hungary's importance for geopolitical players (USA, China, Russia).
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
