At the front, Russian troops continue their gradual advance in the Donetsk region. They have captured the city of Kurakhove and are forming "pincers" around the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration, which they are trying to encircle from two directions: from the area of the settlement of Vozdvizhenka and from the area of the settlement of Udachny and the settlement of Kotlino. From the side of the captured city of Kurakhovo and the settlement of Shevchenko, Russian troops approached the outskirts of the settlement of Andriivka.
In the southern direction of the Donetsk region, the crisis around the town of Velyka Novosilka remains, where Russian troops captured the settlement of Neskuchne and are now preparing to strike from the south on the settlement of Vremyevka, It is already partially blocked from the west.
Russian troops have captured the northern areas of Chasiv Yar and most of Toretsk. As soon as these cities and important fortified areas are captured, the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kramatorsk-Konstantynivka agglomeration will sharply worsen. Considering the terrain (Chasiv Yar is located on a hill), Russian troops will develop the offensive towards Konstantynivka.
Russian troops also advanced north of the city of Kupyansk on the right bank of the Oskil River – in the settlement of Dvurichna and near the settlement of Zapadny. The Russian Federation has created a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River in Dvurichna and is constantly transferring infantry there.
In just one week, Russian troops have advanced another 70 square kilometers and now control 111,942 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
In the Kursk region, even though the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to conduct offensive operations, over the past week, Russia has intensified its offensive in the Sudzha area. Russian troops have recaptured the Kursk region - Novoivanovka, Leonidovo and Alexandria. Thus, the Kursk bridgehead has shrunk by another 60 square kilometers in a week, and now Ukraine controls 424 square kilometers, while 181 square kilometers remain in the gray zone. At the peak of the offensive in August 2024, the Ukrainian army controlled 823 square kilometers of territory in the Kursk region, with another 416 square kilometers in the gray zone.
Maps of military operations.
Donetsk region.
Kursk region..
A scandal has erupted in Ukraine over the mass transfer of Air Force and Air Defense specialists to the infantry, which raises serious concerns about the combat capability of aviation. MP Maryana Bezugla and Oleksiy Goncharenko expressed concern that technicians, mechanics, and other specialists are being sent to the front, which could lead to the "collapse" of the Air Force. According to them, 250 people have already been taken, and further transfers are planned. M. Bezugla blames the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine A. Syrsky for the current situation.
The Air Force Command stated that highly specialized specialists are not subject to transfer and that the decision to transfer only concerns certain categories of personnel who are not involved in servicing high-tech weapons. The General Staff confirmed the need to strengthen ground units due to the lack of infantry at the front but stressed that the scarce specialists would remain in place.
President Volodymyr Zelensky also ordered to clarify the situation and prevent the reduction of necessary specialists for aviation and air defense. However, the military expresses concerns that without technical personnel, the effectiveness of aviation will be significantly reduced, which could negatively affect the country's defense capability.
The situation is a marker that for Ukraine the issue of a lack of human resources at the front, despite the new mobilization measures taken, has only intensified. President V. Zelensky said that more than 600,000 Russian soldiers are currently in Ukraine. The Ukrainian army has 880,000 soldiers, but they are scattered throughout the country, so the Russian Federation has a numerical advantage at the front.
Against this background, representatives of the Ukrainian government say that there will be no demobilization until the end of the war, and there will also be no mechanisms for dismissal after two or three years of service shortly, as reported by Fedir Venislavsky, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence.
For their part, the allies continue to insist on lowering the mobilization age. Thus, the White House states that Ukraine will ultimately have to decide to lower the mobilization age to 18 years. The allies periodically raise the question of why Ukraine has not mobilized its entire population, including women, as former British Defense Minister Ben Wallace recently spoke about. From the point of view of Ukrainian society, such characteristics can only play into the hands of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky - he is the President who did not allow the mobilization of Ukrainian youth. However it is possible that under pressure from Western allies, the mobilization age in Ukraine will still be lowered if hostilities are not stopped, but to reduce electoral losses, this event can be linked to the demobilization process.
From the point of view of Western countries, accusations against Ukraine of insufficient mobilization of its resources for the war with the Russian Federation are, among other things, an attempt to shift responsibility to the Ukrainian government for why the 300 billion dollars allocated for the war did not bring victory at the front. An attempt to justify themselves before the new White House Administration and to avoid the responsibility that may arise after the inauguration of US President D. Trump and his conduct of the corresponding audit.
Ukraine is trying to increase its production of weapons, partly producing them jointly with partners. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held another Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief for Defense Procurement. V. Zelensky instructed to increase the number of drone orders. According to him, "this task is already being carried out." At the same time, the president emphasized that "Ukrainian arsenals are one of the guarantees of independence, as is the accuracy of soldiers." According to President V. Zelensky, Ukraine is already producing 155-caliber ammunition and long-range and naval drones. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal also reported that Ukraine is reaching significant volumes of production of artillery systems and armored vehicles. As reported by the Government, Ukraine plans to produce 3 thousand missiles and 30 thousand long-range drones.
The resignation of the Minister of Energy G. Galushchenko remains in question. Earlier, a group of deputies registered a resolution in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the dismissal of the Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Galushchenko. Among the initiators are the people's deputy of Ukraine from the political party "Golos", the chairman of the subcommittee on the adaptation of the legislation of Ukraine to the provisions of the law of the European Union (EU acquis), the fulfillment of international legal obligations of Ukraine in the field of European integration of the Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on energy and housing and communal services Inna Sovsun and the people's deputy from the political party "Golos", the chairman of the Temporary Investigative Commission of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the investigation of possible illegal actions of officials of state authorities.
The conflict was caused by the completion of the third and fourth power units of the Khmelnytska NPP. I. Sovsun emphasized that public statements about the comprehensive support of this project by American partners do not correspond to reality.
The project has been sent to the management for consideration, but the document itself is not on the website. A deputy from the Voice party Ya. Zheleznyak, Among the reasons for making this decision named: systemic corruption in the energy sector; ignoring summonses at meetings of Parliament and Committees, temporary investigative commissions; attempts to push through the corruption scheme of "large nuclear construction"; failed work to protect part of the energy infrastructure; loss of any reputation among partners; outright lies and manipulation; unacceptable behavior of the minister today during the hour of questions to the government.
It is known that Herman Galushchenko, commenting on the position of the European Commission on the issue of completing the construction of the Khmelnytska NPP power units, allegedly used the term "mid-level clerk" about the EU Ambassador Katarina Maternova. In addition, the head of the Ministry of Energy had a conflict with the MP from the "Holos" faction Inna Sovsun. It can be concluded that the Western allies insist on the resignation of the Minister of Energy, but the final clarity on this issue will be provided by the Office of the President.
In general, the possible resignation of G. Galushchenko was discussed back in the period of the autumn major reformatting of the Government, but then he managed to keep his position. It is possible that now the OP will decide to blame G. Galushchenko for everything forgiven in the energy sector, at the same time "making a concession" to Western allies. But the current attempt to dismiss the Minister of Energy may also fail. The Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Galushchenko, who is summoned to Parliament in connection with the scandal over the Khmelnytska Nuclear Power Plant, will come only for five minutes and without the right of deputies to ask him questions. Based on this, it can be assumed that the resignation of G. Galushchenko will not take place.
After the termination of the transit contract for Russian gas transit through Ukrainian territory, the transit of Russian oil and, possibly, Kazakh oil through Ukrainian territory was also threatened. The current contract is valid until 2029, while it is being implemented through the Druzhba oil pipeline. Over 10 years, Ukraine should receive $1.5 billion in revenue for the transit of Russian oil; in 2024, Ukraine received about 10 billion UAH or $250 million for the transit of Russian oil. At the same time, the Russian Federation receives about $6 billion per year. On oil supplies through Ukraine. Compared to last year, the volume of Russian oil transit decreased by 16% to 11.4 million tons. This is the lowest value since 2014 (15 million tons). During his speech in Parliament, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal assured that Ukraine does not plan to stop the transit of Russian oil to the EU. Ukraine's violation of its international obligations on transit security can be used as a sufficient basis for holding Ukraine accountable for the termination of uninterrupted oil transit, in particular from Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, and the likely imposition of corresponding financial demands. But despite the Prime Minister’s assurances, it is impossible to rule out crises and risks of the cessation of the Druzhba oil pipeline and the fulfillment of this contract as a result of a physical disruption.
Also, after the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, the shelling of gas transportation hubs and storage facilities has increased. For example, on January 15, 2025, Russian troops again launched a massive attack on Ukraine, targeting energy and gas distribution infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that more than 40 missiles and over 70 drones were used in the attack. The targets of the strike were facilities that ensure the normal life of citizens, including gas storage facilities and energy facilities.
Regarding the process of peace negotiations. Ukrainian President V. Zelensky continues to insist on his key positions regarding the possible start of negotiations: reliable security guarantees with the participation of the United States, an invitation or partial membership of Ukraine in NATO, with the Russian Federation "It is necessary to speak only from a position of strength", therefore Ukraine needs to increase aid, etc. Also, the OP does not give up hope to convince D. Trump of his position.
In Ukraine, they continue to hope that D. Trump, if he wishes, can exert stronger and more decisive pressure on the Russian Federation than was the case under President J. Biden, when aid to Ukraine was “dosed out.” V. Zelensky also spoke out against negotiations with V. Putin before a separate meeting between V. Zelensky and D. Trump, at which he believes they could agree on a joint position and, most importantly, security guarantees for Ukraine with the participation of the United States.
In turn, D. Trump has not yet promised any guarantees to Ukraine. And regarding Ukraine's admission to NATO, the elected US President just recently spoke out against it. He said that he "can understand" V. Putin's concern about the Alliance approaching Russian borders.
Donald Trump's future national security adviser Mike Waltz confirmed that the US President-elect's team is working on preparing his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that "at least a call" could take place in the coming days or weeks. Trump himself had previously spoken about this before meeting with Republican governors at his Mar-a-Lago residence. "He wants to meet, and we will arrange it... President Putin wants to meet. He even said it publicly, and we have to end this war. It's a bloody mess," said D. Trump.
Mike Waltz also confirmed that the President-elect believes this is necessary in order to try to implement his plans to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war.
V. Putin also declared his readiness to negotiate with D. Trump without preconditions. "No conditions are required for this, only mutual desire, political will, and readiness to conduct a dialogue. We see that Trump also declares his readiness to solve problems through dialogue. We welcome this," said Kremlin spokesman Peskov. According to him, there are no "specifics" yet, the Kremlin expects "some movement" after the inauguration of the new US President.
That is, clear signals are coming from Trump's camp that the meeting with V. Putin will take place with the elected US President without any preconditions (including from Ukraine).
Thus, both D. Trump and V. Putin express their readiness for a meeting of the two leaders and expect that some kind of “mutual understanding” will be reached as a result. And there is a high probability that the future “deal” between the Russian Federation and the United States may in many ways run counter to the interests of Ukraine, imply territorial concessions, neutrality, or even a change of power if it is ultimately impossible to reach an agreement with V. Zelensky’s team.
Judging by the fact that Ukraine shows no desire to negotiate and end the war, Trump may have high hopes for agreements with the Russian Federation, which makes it clear that it is ready to talk.
This point worries some European leaders who are not inclined to compromise with the Russian Federation. Thus, Ukraine was the central topic at the meeting between French President E. Macron and British Prime Minister K. Starmer. The leaders of France and Britain discussed the continuation of arms supplies and financial aid after 2025, as well as the provision of security guarantees. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit Ukraine to discuss the deployment of peacekeeping forces, the visit is planned for the "coming weeks". K. Starmer will discuss with Volodymyr Zelensky the possibility of deploying an international peacekeeping force (the Franco-British expeditionary force) if a ceasefire agreement is reached. However, it was noted that this is only possible with the support of the United States. It is unlikely to be possible if Russia is categorically against it. This means a direct clash between the Franco-British contingent and the Russian army.
Elon Musk believes that D. Trump "will resolve the conflict in Ukraine very quickly." He said this on a stream with the head of the Alternative for Germany party, Alice Weidel. He also noted that Ukraine is much smaller than Russia and "cannot afford" this war, "many people have died." Answering the question of the head of AfD about how the war in Ukraine can be ended, Musk said that this "is for President D. Trump." But, from Musk's point of view, it is possible to end the war, after which "the world will have a wonderful future."
The future Donald Trump administration may likely focus on strengthening the influence of right-wing and conservative movements, which will affect not only the United States but also other countries. As the next head of the US Department of Optimization of the Government, Elon Musk is increasingly seen as an active participant in this trend. His public statements and actions often demonstrate criticism of existing liberal governments. Most likely, he is voicing what D. Trump himself is thinking.
Recently, I. Musk has already attacked with personal insults the leaders of Canada (Prime Minister D. Trudeau), Germany (Chancellor O. Scholz), and Great Britain (Prime Minister K. Starmer), and also supported far-right movements in key European countries.
Among them are Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia, Nigel Farage in the UK (with his party Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party), and Alternative for Germany with its leader Alice Weidel. Prime Minister George Meloni is currently playing a double game: on the one hand, she is trying to maintain good relations with traditional partners in the EU, and on the other, she is criticizing globalists and, for example, George Soros. Perhaps Musk will try to strengthen her movement or find a more flamboyant right-wing competitor. In the eyes of conservatives, French President Emmanuel Macron remains a symbol of European liberalism. It is not yet clear who exactly Musk will support, but right-wing populist movements in France (for example, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally) have already received additional impetus from the global trend towards a conservative turn.
Using its influential position - from social networks to financial instruments - D. Trump's team will try to: mobilize right-wing parties and movements to overthrow or seriously limit the influence of liberal governments (in Great Britain, Canada, Germany, and several EU countries). Change the political paradigm in the Western world - from immigration policy and the social sphere to global agreements on climate and the economy.
As for Ukraine, it is possible that D. Trump, represented by I. Musk, may at some point begin to publicly support a small or marginal political force with a certain leader, based on his strategic interests and a new wave in American politics. This will serve as a signal that Ukraine will face a change in the political elite. This scenario is especially possible if D. Trump's scenarios for ending the war are ultimately rejected by V. Zelensky's team.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the end of the war, plans for the upcoming elections are being discussed in Ukrainian political circles. Key points regarding the changes in the political strategy of President Volodymyr Zelensky's team include:
Brand change: Zelensky's team plans to ditch the name "Servant of the People," which is considered "toxic" and outdated. Instead, the party will run in the elections under the working title "Zelensky Bloc."
Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Fedorov may become the head of the renewed political force. This decision is being discussed in the context of the need to renew the party's composition and attract new people.
Changes in the composition of candidates: In future lists of candidates, it is assumed that no more than 10% of the current people's deputies from the mono-majority will remain in the party. The remaining places will be filled by local leaders, volunteers, bloggers, and activists.
Uncertainty over Zelensky's participation: The question of whether Zelensky will run for a second term remains open. His entourage is divided in its opinions: some believe that it is necessary to participate in the elections regardless of the situation, while others suggest assessing the sociology closer to the elections.
Impact of the conditions for ending the war: The main questions concern the conditions for ending the conflict with Russia and how they will affect Zelensky's political fate. If the war ends, it could change public opinion about his rule and the possibility of continuing his political career.
Thus, the political situation in Ukraine remains dynamic, and parties are actively preparing for the elections, despite the uncertainty regarding the future of the conflict and its impact on the political landscape.
Since the beginning of the war, Ukrainians' trust in all government institutions has sharply decreased, as evidenced by a KIIS survey. Thus, trust in the President as an institution of state power has fallen by 39% - from 84% in December 2022 to 45% in December 2024. Personal trust in President V. Zelensky is now about 52%. At the same time, in the regional context, in the west of Ukraine, Zelensky is supported by 60%, the most. By the way, there, where the ex-president P. Poroshenko is also supported the most. This is one of the markers that Volodymyr Zelensky is gradually shifting to the right political niche (Petro Poroshenko), against this background, the centric and left-centrist niche is becoming free. It is worth considering that the level of trust is not yet an indicator of readiness to vote. The President's electoral rating may be even lower.
The leader of the anti-rating of trust of Ukrainians today is the Verkhovna Rada. Trust from 35% (in 2022) to 13% now, 68% of citizens do not trust the Verkhovna Rada. The Government's trust rating has fallen from 52% to 20%, 53% do not trust. That is, both the Parliament and the Government are trusted below - 50%. Even the Armed Forces of Ukraine have seen a certain correction in trust, from 96% to 92%. There are 2% who express distrust of the Ukrainian army. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still lead the leadership in the trust of Ukrainians by a large margin. In second place is the Security Service of Ukraine, now 54% (previously 63%) of Ukrainians trust the SBU, and 21% do not trust it. And there is a critically sharp drop in the level of trust in the police. From 58% to 37%. But this is a consequence of the fact that the police perform the function of catching "shirkers", deserters, etc.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
