Aid to Ukraine remains a subject of pre-election confrontation between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress. Complex behind-the-scenes negotiations are underway to allocate new Ukrainian funding, as evidenced by the visit of Ukrainian President V. Zelensky this week, first to Argentina and then to the United States. Thus, on December 12, negotiations took place in Washington between Ukraine's President Vladimir Zelensky and US President Joe Biden. V. Zelensky spoke in the Senate and met with the Speaker of the House of Representatives and other members of Congress.
The pause in providing Ukrainian financing in the United States is dragging on. Republicans in both houses of Congress are demanding that immigration laws be tightened as a condition for their support for Ukraine. Democrats fear Congress will end in 2023 without passing legislation.
During a joint press conference with the President of Ukraine, US President D. Biden said that the $200 million aid package to Ukraine would be one of the last tranches if a law on further funding were not passed in Congress. He once again confirmed the continued support of Ukraine from the Americans. And emphasized the importance of stopping Russian aggression for the security of the whole world. D. Biden said that the Russian Federation is celebrating when Republicans in Congress block aid to Ukraine. The US President emphasized his readiness to supply weapons to Ukraine but noted that without additional assistance, US reserves would soon run out. He also said that Ukraine will be in NATO immediately after victory in the war.
For his part, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said that since February 2022, Ukraine has liberated 50% of the territories seized by the Russian Federation and also emphasized the importance of strengthening positions in the sky. V. Zelensky said that Ukraine's maritime exports have resumed and are now strengthening its economy (an increase of 5%) and global food security. V. Zelensky believes that Ukraine has implemented all recommendations of the European Commission regarding preparations for accession to the EU.
Regarding compromises with the Russian Federation, V. Zelensky said Ukraine cannot give it its territories. Earlier, during a meeting with senators, V. Zelensky warned that without additional help, the war in Ukraine could "become more brutal." However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may relinquish some of their positions under Russian pressure. Let us recall that in Ukraine, the majority of citizens - 58% (KIIS study) are now inclined to believe that military operations should continue even in the event of a significant reduction in Western assistance. Third (32%) believe that ending hostilities with serious security guarantees from the West is better.
The results of the visit of the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, to the United States, cannot be called successful; Ukraine received only a "consolatory" aid package of $200 million; no other progress has yet been achieved. Against this background, even a visit to Oslo for V. Zelensky was more productive - Norway will allocate $1.8 billion in aid to Ukraine by the end of this year and will continue to support the country from the first months of 2024.
But negotiations between Ukraine and their American colleagues continue. Most likely, assistance from the United States will continue, but the bill may only be adopted this year after the Christmas holidays and will be postponed to January 2024. In addition, the volume of assistance could be significantly reduced to $20-30 billion (remember, the White House requested $61 billion), and it will not be enough to increase the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and conduct large counter-offensive operations.
In addition to the issue of funding, it was important for President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to secure new support from the US White House, given that the political system is now conditionally divided into two camps in Ukraine. There is a decline in the Government's ratings, and the process of the rise of an alternative leader - the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny - begins. Thus (according to the data of the Sociological Group "Rating"), V. Zaluzhny's rating (40%) is equal to V. Zelensky's rating (42%), and his conditional party (36%) is ahead of V. Zelensky's Bloc (26%) by 10%.
American assistance for Ukraine is crucial because the United States guides other allies. There is a high probability that if Washington reduces or stops funding to Ukraine, most EU countries will follow its example.
In the coming days, the EU Council will be held, where the heads of member states must approve two critical decisions for Ukraine: begin negotiations on the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU and allocate funding to Ukraine for 50 billion euros. However, EU aid has faced the threat of delay due to the opposition of some countries to voting on giving such a large amount to Ukraine. The EU is already considering providing emergency funding to Ukraine, bypassing the general budget.
The functioning of the Ukrainian economy during the war depended entirely on foreign donors' funding. The United States and other partner countries finance significant Ukrainian government spending, from healthcare to housing subsidies.
The head of the Verkhovna Rada Budget Committee, R. Pidlasa, said that without US help, problems with social payments in Ukraine could begin as early as January 2024. The deficit in the first month of 2024 could reach UAH 20 billion. The total budget deficit for 2024 is 1.57 trillion. UAH They are planning to be attracted to the foreign and domestic markets. If foreign support for Ukraine weakens, the country will be forced to seek domestic resources. The Government does not rule out the resumption of hryvnia emissions, leading to increased inflation and devaluation of the national currency.
Against the general background of internal problems among allied countries, war fatigue, and enormous costs for Ukraine, Western support continues to weaken. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, all registered aid commitments to Ukraine since the war started have increased to about €241.5 billion. In particular, the European Union - 133.2 billion euros; the USA- 71.4 billion euros; and other countries - 36.9 billion euros. Ukraine increasingly relies on a core group of donors, such as the United States, Germany, and Northern and Eastern European countries. The dynamics of support for Ukraine have slowed down. Newly allocated aid hit a new low between August and October 2023, down nearly 90% from the same period in 2022. The outlook is unclear as the most significant expected aid commitment - from the European Union - has not been finalized, and aid from the US is declining.
Let us recall that the US Congress announced that it had already allocated $111 billion to help Ukraine, including $67 billion to finance military purchases, $27 billion for economic and civilian assistance, and $10 billion for humanitarian aid.
Secretary of State E. Blinken said that 90% of the military assistance provided to Ukraine was spent in the United States.
The complexity of the situation in Congress is aggravated by the increase in “anti-Ukrainian” sentiment among the Republican electorate. The survey results from the Pew Research Center indicate that about a third of Americans, 31%, consider it necessary to reduce aid to Ukraine. Another 29% believe current aid is sufficient, while 18% favor increasing it. Among Republican supporters, the share who suggest reducing aid increased from 44% to 48%.
Against this background, Donald Trump's rating (47%) begins to surpass Joe Biden's (43%) (The Wall Street Journal). Let us remember that at the end of the summer, the ratings of these two leading candidates were almost identical. The possible return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 is expected to lead to a significant reduction in Western support for Ukraine.
At the front, the initiative is gradually passing to the Russian troops. The Russian Armed Forces intensified attempts to attack in several directions. In the Donetsk region, near the city of Avdeevka, the Russian Armed Forces advanced towards the town from the northeastern dacha zone. Previously, the Russian Federation in the southeast of Avdeevka captured most of the industrial area.
To the south of Avdeevka, fighting continues for Marinka, where the Russian Federation has also progressed. Not officially in the Russian Federation, they are talking about the advance of Russian troops to the western outskirts of Marinka, Donetsk region, and its actual capture.
In the Bakhmutsky sector, the Russian Federation is advancing near Bogdanovka and east of Razdolovka.
In the Liman direction, the main battles are in the direction of the Ternov villages and the Yampolovka town.
In the southern direction on the Left Bank of the Dnieper, fighting continues near the village of Krynki in the Kherson region.
The Russian Federation has decided on the date of the presidential elections; they will be held on March 17, 2024. In this case, voting will take place from March 15 to 17. These elections will be of a referendum nature; in the Russian Federation, they will also determine the direction of the country's external course (including Ukraine). Russian President V. Putin decided to run in the upcoming presidential elections, allowing him to remain in power until 2030. After the elections, V. Putin will have a "free hand" to escalate the situation: conducting new mobilizations and intensifying attacks on Ukraine. Seizing new territories could play a key negative role in the American presidential elections, depriving the incumbent President D. Biden of his chances of winning. This will also create additional arguments and conditions for the Russian Federation to begin negotiations with the new US Administration. Therefore, the Russian window of opportunity is from March to November 2024. (before the US presidential elections), or a little longer, will most likely be characterized by maximum military escalation at the front.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted three important European integration laws. Thus, in the second reading, government bill No. 10203-1 was adopted to strengthen the institutional capacity of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU). The law provides for an increase in the maximum number of NABU employees from 700 to 1,000 people, including a plan to expand the number of management personnel from 500 to 750 people.
Bill No. 10262 was adopted, allowing the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NACP) to conduct inspections of the property of officials they acquired before being appointed to their positions. With the new version of the law, an audit can be carried out when new data or new sources of information become available. Previously, the NAPC only verified published knowledge if no violations were found.
In general, an updated bill No. 10288-1 was adopted on amendments to some Ukrainian laws, considering the expert assessment of the Council of Europe and its bodies on the rights of national minorities (communities) in certain areas. This is one of the requirements of the European Commission, which is a necessary condition for starting negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU.
First, the bill aims to expand the rights of official EU languages such as Hungarian, Romanian, Bulgarian, and others. It includes the following changes: the protection of the right to use languages of national minorities will be ensured by the Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for Human Rights; the rights to use the language of national minorities in the educational process in parallel with the state language are guaranteed; expanding opportunities for the use of languages of national minorities in the field of media and publishing.
Thus, minority languages can be used in private schools, universities, minority classes, the media, political advertising, etc. However, these provisions do not apply to the language of the aggressor country (Russian), and the changes are valid indefinitely and not for five years, as previously planned. The law contains a necessary clarification regarding the selected range of languages, which "are the official languages of the European Union, languages of national minorities (communities), to which the provisions of the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages apply according to the Law of Ukraine of May 15, 2003 N 802-IV "On ratification of the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages," except for the languages of national minorities (communities), which is the state (official) language of a state that has been recognized by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine as an aggressor state or an occupier state, regardless of territorial category."
The Ukrainian Government now expects the European Council to make a final decision on the start of formal negotiations on Ukraine's EU membership.
At the same time, on the part of European partners, the start of negotiations with Ukraine is a symbolic step that still needs to guarantee the country quick accession to the EU. However, the opening of the EU accession negotiations for the government team in Ukraine is essential from the point of view of demonstrating European prospects and "victories" to Ukrainian society.
In the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, many deputies are seeking to resign. As said by the head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, a significant number of parliamentarians want to leave their mandates. Still, they are "not being released" since a decrease in the number of deputies in the Rada may affect its activities. D. Arakhamia believes that it is necessary to optimize the work of Parliament so that it works until the new conference is approximately in the same regime and reduces the minimum number of people's deputies in groups to preserve these groups. Let us recall that the day before the Verkhovna Rada approved the statements of three people's deputies about the resignation of their deputy mandates: Vitaly Danilov) ("Batkivshchyna"); Maxim Efimov ("Restoration of Ukraine"); Dmitry Shpenov (self-nominated). Thus, 400 deputies remained in Parliament. The mass dismissal of deputies is because, recently, there has been increased pressure on deputies from anti-corruption bodies, the lack of parliamentary immunity, the lack of opportunity to influence the political system, and the general toxicity of deputy powers in the eyes of society.
Combat map.
Internal situation in the country.
The head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, said that many parliamentarians in Parliament want to resign.
According to the head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, many parliamentarians want to resign their mandates. Still, they are "not being released" since a decrease in the number of deputies in the Rada may affect its activities. D. Arakhamia believes it is necessary to optimize the work of Parliament until the new conference in approximately the same mode and to reduce the minimum number of people's deputies in groups to preserve these groups. Let us recall that the day before the Verkhovna Rada approved the statements of three people's deputies about the resignation of their deputy mandates: Vitaly Danilov) ("Batkivshchyna"); Maxim Efimov ("Restoration of Ukraine"); Dmitry Shpenov (self-nominated). Thus, 400 deputies remained in Parliament. The mass dismissal of deputies is because, recently, there has been increased pressure on deputies from anti-corruption bodies, the lack of parliamentary immunity, the lack of opportunity to influence the political system, and the general toxicity of deputy powers in the eyes of society.
Sociology.
According to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), 87% of citizens believe that if the West properly helps Ukraine with weapons, finances, and sanctions, then Ukraine will be able to defeat Russia and achieve an acceptable result. 58% are now inclined to believe that even in the event of a significant reduction in Western assistance, military operations should continue to put pressure on the occupiers, even taking into account the risks for the territories controlled by Ukraine. At the same time, every third respondent (32%) believes that it is better to end the fighting with solemn security guarantees from the West, even if the liberation of the occupied territories drags on indefinitely. The remaining 10% could not decide on their opinion. In the West and center of Ukraine, more respondents (64% and 65%, respectively) support the continuation of hostilities. In the South and East, thoughts were divided approximately in half, with only a slight predominance of the idea of continuing hostilities. Thus, in the south, 46%, and in the east of the country, 47% believe that hostilities should continue even with limited Western assistance. At the same time, 40% and 42% are ready for a cessation of hostilities.
According to data from the Sociological Group, Rating, and the Rating Lab research laboratory. The dynamics of the psycho-emotional state of the population during the war changed as follows: The tremendous significance of resilience was seen at the start of the Russian invasion in April 2022. Then, it decreased the most in March 2023 and has now stabilized.
The older generation, from 50+, has high stability. Residents of the Lugansk region have the lowest resilience level, while Transcarpathian region residents have the highest. Young Ukrainians experience more positive emotions, but they are not stable.
• The “freeze” strategy for overcoming stress among Ukrainians has undergone the most significant changes: decreased significantly. The dominant strategy of the Ukrainians at the moment is "fight." This is a method to survive in difficult conditions of war. In March 2023, Ukrainians began to decline the "freeze" strategy. This means that people gradually choose more active strategies to cope with stress. Young people use the "freeze" strategy most often and the "fight" strategy least of all. And this is a very negative indicator, a "wake-up call" regarding the future of society.
• Women generally experience more negative emotions and, accordingly, less positive feelings than men.
• Income is an essential indicator of the state of society as a whole. Wealthy people are more resilient, experience more positive emotions, and use an active "fight" strategy to cope with stress. People experiencing poverty are less stable; they often "freeze" and are emotionally damaged.
The vitality of Ukrainian residents is consistently above average; during the measurement period, it did not fall below 3 out of 5. In April 2022, the vitality level was 3.88; in November 2023, it was 3.41. Sustainability indicators may have slightly decreased or increased during this period, but these differences are insignificant.
Psychological stability (interest in life, ability to make decisions, attitude towards the past and future, the feeling of one's usefulness, etc.) was the highest in April 2022 - 4.17, in March 2023 the lowest - 3.51 and has remained unchanged since May 2023. – 3.75.
Physical stability (physical health support: health monitoring, quality of sleep, nutrition, the feeling of fatigue) is slightly lower than psychological: from 3.6 in April 2022 to 3.12 in November 2023 - these changes are also insignificant.
For positive emotions, the worst month was March 2023, when a decrease in the positive emotional background was observed: this is the period of recovery from a brutal, exhausting, cold winter (there is still little solar activity, fatigue, and loss of energy are felt). The best month was May 2023, when their level increased (long daylight hours and anticipation of a counter-offensive, hope, and recovery). In November 2023, the positive emotional spectrum was as follows: interest (4.8), joy (4.3), inspiration (4.2), love (3.8), pleasure (3.8), calmness (3.7). Ukrainians experience the most minor peace and the most interest because interest is responsible for monitoring what is happening around them.
For negative emotions in general, June 2023 had the highest rates. In November 2023, the negative emotional spectrum looks like this: excitement (5.0), sadness (4.8), anger (4.3), disappointment (4.3), fear (4.3), indifference (3.3). Consequently, the excitement of the entire measurement dynamics remains at the highest level – from 4.9 to 5.1. Ukrainians feel less fear. As well as disappointment, which is talked about so much: it was the least in May 2023 (3.6) and the greatest in June 2023 (4.4), but its level has hardly fluctuated since then.
The Verkhovna Rada adopted three important European integration laws.
Thus, in the second reading, government bill No. 10203-1 was adopted to strengthen the institutional capacity of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU). The law provides for an increase in the maximum number of NABU employees from 700 to 1,000 people, including a plan to expand the number of management personnel from 500 to 750 people.
Bill No. 10262 was adopted, allowing the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NACP) to conduct inspections of the property of officials they acquired before being appointed to their positions. With the new version of the law, an audit can be carried out when new data or new sources of information become available. Previously, the NAPC only verified published knowledge if no violations were found.
In general, an updated bill No. 10288-1 was adopted on amendments to some Ukrainian laws, considering the expert assessment of the Council of Europe and its bodies on the rights of national minorities (communities) in certain areas. This is one of the requirements of the European Commission, which is a necessary condition for starting negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU.
First, the bill aims to expand the rights of official EU languages such as Hungarian, Romanian, and Bulgarian. It includes the following changes: the protection of the right to use languages of national minorities will be ensured by the Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for Human Rights; the rights to use the language of national minorities in the educational process in parallel with the state language are guaranteed; expanding opportunities for the use of languages of national minorities in the field of media and publishing.
Thus, minority languages can be used in private schools, universities, minority classes, the media, political advertising, etc. However, these provisions do not apply to the language of the aggressor country (Russian), and the changes are valid indefinitely and not for five years, as previously planned. The law contains a necessary clarification regarding the selected range of languages, which "are the official languages of the European Union, languages of national minorities (communities), to which the provisions of the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages apply according to the Law of Ukraine of May 15, 2003 N 802-IV "On ratification of the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages," except for the languages of national minorities (communities), which is the state (official) language of a state that has been recognized by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine as an aggressor state or an occupier state, regardless of territorial category."
The Ukrainian Government now expects the European Council to make a final decision on the start of formal negotiations on Ukraine's EU membership.
At the same time, on the part of European partners, the start of negotiations with Ukraine is instead a symbolic step, which still needs to guarantee the country quick accession to the EU. However, the opening of the EU accession negotiations for the government team in Ukraine is significant from the point of view of demonstrating European prospects and "victories" to Ukrainian society.
The situation around Ukraine.
Financing of Ukraine. Visit of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to the USA.
On December 12, negotiations occurred between Ukraine's President Vladimir Zelensky and US President Joe Biden in Washington. V. Zelensky also spoke in the Senate and met with the Speaker of the House of Representatives and other representatives of Congress. This visit to the United States was the third for the President of Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion. It occurred in acute internal political disagreements in the United States.
The pause in providing Ukrainian financing in the United States is dragging on. Democrats fear Congress will end in 2023 without passing legislation as Republicans continue to block aid to Ukraine. Republicans in both houses of Congress demanded stricter immigration laws as a condition of their support. Shalanda Young, head of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said that the United States has only $1 billion left in funding to replenish its stocks of weapons and ammunition previously sent to Ukraine.
During a joint press conference with the President of Ukraine, US President D. Biden said that the $200 million aid package to Ukraine would be one of the last tranches if a law on further funding were not passed in Congress. He once again confirmed the continued support of Ukraine from the Americans. And emphasized the importance of stopping Russian aggression for the security of the whole world. D. Biden said that the Russian Federation is celebrating when Republicans in Congress block aid to Ukraine. The US President emphasized his readiness to supply weapons to Ukraine but noted that without additional assistance, US reserves would soon run out. He also said that Ukraine will be in NATO immediately after victory in the war.
For his part, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said that since February 2022, Ukraine has liberated 50% of the territories and emphasized the importance of strengthening positions in the sky. Zelensky also noted that Ukraine's maritime exports have resumed, and it is maintaining its economy (5% growth) and global food security.
V. Zelensky believes that Ukraine Ukraine has fulfilled all recommendations of the European Commission regarding preparations for accession to the EU.
Regarding compromises with the Russian Federation, V. Zelensky said Ukraine cannot give it its territories.
Earlier, during a meeting with senators, V. Zelensky warned that without additional help, the war in Ukraine could "become more brutal." However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may relinquish some of their positions under Russian pressure.
In addition to the issue of funding, it was important for President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to secure new support from the US White House, given that the political system is now conditionally divided into two camps in Ukraine. There is a decline in the Government's ratings, and the process of the rise of an alternative leader - the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny - begins. Thus (according to the data of the Sociological Group "Rating"), V. Zaluzhny's rating (40%) is equal to V. Zelensky's rating (42%), and his conditional party (36%) is ahead of V. Zelensky's Bloc (26%) by 10%.
American assistance for Ukraine is crucial because the United States guides other allies. There is a high probability that if Washington reduces or stops funding to Ukraine, most EU countries will follow its example.
In the coming days, the EU Council will be held, where the heads of member states must approve two critical decisions for Ukraine: begin negotiations on the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU and allocate funding to Ukraine for 50 billion euros. However, EU aid has faced the threat of delay due to the opposition of some countries to voting on giving such a large amount to Ukraine. The EU is already considering providing emergency funding to Ukraine, bypassing the general budget.
Summarizing the results of the visit of the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, to the United States, US assistance to Ukraine will likely continue. Still, the bill may only be adopted this year after Christmas. It is possible that, as a compromise with the Republicans, the Biden Administration will nevertheless consider the possibility of some compromises on immigration issues. In addition, the volume of assistance may be significantly reduced to $20-30 billion (remember, the White House requested $61 billion), and it will not be enough to increase the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and conduct large counter-offensive operations.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
