The dynamics at the front remain negative for Ukraine. Russian troops in the south of Donetsk Oblast captured the urban settlement of Velyka Novosilka. It occupied an important position in the defense system of Ukrainian forces (to the south of it in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remain - Gulyaipole, Orikhiv - the last key cities on the road to Zaporizhzhia). Key transport logistics passed through this settlement, so the loss of this hub complicates supplies and maneuvers in the southern section of the Donetsk Front. According to the military, there are now practically no serious fortifications in the steppe regions from the western border of Donetsk Oblast to Dnipro. At the same time, from Velyka Novosilka to Zaporizhzhia in a straight line, there are about 125 kilometers.
Russian troops have also advanced in several areas in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd area. To the east of Myrnograd, fighting is already underway for the Pokrovsk-Konstantynivka highway (Russian troops are advancing from the settlements of Vozdvyzhenka and Baranivka).
In the Kurakhove direction, fighting is taking place in the villages of Dachne and Andriivka. To the west of Kurakhove, the Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattacked on both sides of the highway to Zaporizhzhia - in the area of the villages of Zelenivka and Andriivka.
Between the towns of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove from the settlement of Udachne, Uspenivka, Nadezhdenka, Novoandriivka, and The Russian Federation's armed forces are trying to break through to the border of the Dnepropetrovsk region (about 5 km left from Udachne).
In the areas of Chasiv Yar, fighting is taking place in the area of the villages of Stupochky and Bila Gora.
In the Kharkiv region, on the right bank of the Oskil River, Russian troops have almost captured the village of Dvurichna.
Maps of military operations.
Donetsk region.
Thus, the Russian Federation continues to advance in several directions in Ukraine, although the pace of the offensive remains relatively slow. While Russian troops are unable to make deep penetrations into Ukrainian territory, therefore, the crisis at the front does not yet pose critical political risks for the Ukrainian government. However, given the overall situation, such breakthroughs may become possible as early as the second half of 2025.
Shortly, the Russian Federation will probably try to develop an offensive in the flat areas of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions and advance into the eastern regions of the Dnipropetrovsk region. At the same time, the key goals for the Russian Federation on the Eastern front remain the capture of the cities of Pokrovsk, Murnograd, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Kupyansk. Ukraine, for its part, will seek to slow down the Russian offensive and exhaust the enemy as much as possible.
Russia believes it can wear Ukraine down in the long term, achieve military gains, and impose its terms, including control of the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Ukraine, in turn, is trying to use the remaining time to strengthen its position and maintain support from the United States, including increasing its purchases of American weapons and attracting foreign investors.
The situation at the front is becoming more complicated, including due to the numerical superiority of the Russian armed forces, it became especially noticeable in 2024. Mobilization in Ukraine is taking place with significant problems: the current recruitment rates do not compensate for losses at the front. Moreover, a relatively big part of the mobilized people leave the army, which worsens the situation.
The position of Western partners (especially the US and UK) is that Ukraine must stabilize the front in order to receive further military assistance, which requires lowering the mobilization age. However, such actions could be politically toxic for the Ukrainian leadership, raising the mobilization age would negatively affect the ratings of President V. Zelensky since the bulk of his electorate consists of young people.
In general, it is becoming clear that the new US Presidential Administration can put aside the Ukrainian case and has little hope of continuing it in financial and military terms. Thus, significant changes have taken place in the Pentagon: employees responsible for coordinating arms supplies to Ukraine have been fired or suspended. Trump's National Security Advisor Mike Waltz sent home dozens of National Security Council employees responsible for Ukraine, Iran, and the DPRK, suspending them from their work.
The new US leadership has initiated a large-scale audit of the use of funds for international aid, including those allocated to Ukraine. President D. Trump issued an executive order to temporarily suspend all US programs for the provision of foreign aid for 90 days until the audit is conducted.
Payments are suspended until all programs are reviewed for effectiveness and consistency with U.S. foreign policy.
The decree concerns programs The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), rather than macro-financial or military assistance to Ukraine, but they are also currently on hold pending more detailed information.
USAID supports projects in more than 100 countries, including Ukraine. It finances both government projects under the auspices of foreign governments and projects of non-governmental public organizations. Since the beginning of the war in 2022, USAID has allocated $30 billion to Ukraine in direct budget support, $5 billion was allocated for development, and $2.6 billion for humanitarian aid.
In parallel, the US withdrew all requests for the transportation of military cargo in the interests of Ukraine, which were sent through key transit points in Rzeszow, Constanta, and Varna. This decision led to the suspension of deliveries of weapons and military equipment, which now remain at NATO bases in Europe.
These decisions may be delayed for an indefinite time. Which in turn may negatively affect the moral and psychological state of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a difficult situation. If peace cannot be quickly agreed upon, the pace of retreat of Ukrainian troops will increase. In general, the issue of Ukraine and the possible misuse of funds will be used against the team of former US President J. Biden, and at the same time, the team of Ukrainian President V. Zelensky, with whom the new US President has clearly "strained" relations, may also come under attack.
It is likely that in the future if the fighting is not stopped as a result of negotiations, the problem of financial aid to Ukraine will be "thrown" onto the shoulders of Europe. Europe currently remains divided into two blocs regarding the issue of the Ukrainian-Russian war. The first is Britain and France, they insist on continuing the war and maintaining support for Ukraine, as well as sanctions and other restrictions for the Russian Federation. To participate in the negotiations on security guarantees, this bloc is trying to create the appearance that it is capable of supporting Ukraine without the United States. And it is trying to promote the issue of peacekeepers in Ukraine. There are also statements from the British and French sides about purchasing American weapons so that the United States remains interested in this issue. It is precisely on the support of this group that the Office of the President of Ukraine is counting to a greater extent. This part of Europe is trying to continue implementing the policy of former US President J. Biden and the Democrats, but they have bad relations with Trump and his entourage, there is no trust between them.
The second group of countries, such as Hungary, Slovakia, and possibly Italy, are the closest partners of the United States in Europe. They are still waiting for the official American position and plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, which they will certainly support. These countries are in favor of ending the war as soon as possible, seeking compromises with the Russian Federation, as well as concessions, primarily at the cost of Ukraine.
A clear plan for settling the war in Ukraine has not yet been presented in open sources. At the same time, the new US President D. Trump makes it clear that he intends to end the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible.
In particular, immediately after his inauguration, D. Trump gave strict instructions to the special representative for Ukraine and the Russian Federation, K. Kellogg, to find a solution to the protracted Russian-Ukrainian conflict within 100 days. But K. Kellogg, being formally appointed as a negotiator, may be removed from real negotiations due to insufficient autonomy and mistrust of him in the Russian Federation. Most likely, all key decisions and negotiations will be personally controlled by Donald Trump. The Kremlin, where they do not refuse to negotiate in words, but, like in Ukraine, are not inclined to make concessions, also seems to be counting on the personal participation of the US President.
D. Trump also gave the order to prepare telephone negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin, and then, possibly, a personal meeting. Only after that will he be able to more precisely outline the timeframe for ending the war in Ukraine.
At the same time, the US President is also trying to put pressure on the Russian side to achieve a compromise and makes it clear that V. Putin's refusal to stop the war will be "destructive" for the Russian economy. On January 22, Donald Trump appealed to Russian President V. Putin to immediately stop the war against Ukraine. In the event of a refusal to agree, D. Trump threatened to introduce high taxes, duties, and sanctions on all Russian goods supplied to the United States and other countries that support such measures.
For its part, the Russian Federation is taking a mostly wait-and-see position, while simultaneously demonstrating openness to the start of the negotiation process with the new US President. Given its advantage on the front, Moscow is making it clear that it does not intend to make major concessions in the negotiations. Let us recall that the Russian Federation may consider the Istanbul Peace Plan (neutral status of Ukraine, refusal to join NATO, etc.) as a basis for negotiations, but it believes that Ukraine and its allies should already proceed from the real state of affairs "on the ground", that is, take into account the occupied territories.
The main issues in negotiations between the US and Russia may be:
- sanctions against Russia and the fate of frozen Russian assets, the amount of which amounts to approximately 300 billion dollars.
- concluding agreements on strategic stability, nuclear disarmament, missile regulation, and cooperation on issues related to China and the countries of the Global South.
- determination of the real zone of influence in which Ukraine will be located and its future fate.
The US is not yet ready to provide Ukraine with any security guarantees. The issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO also remains excluded from the discussion.
Answering journalists' questions about the negotiations, D. Trump says that the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky is allegedly ready to conclude a “deal”, he takes V. Putin’s position much more seriously.
The official position of the Ukrainian authorities, in key moments, does not coincide with the vision of the new Trump administration. Despite the harsh rhetoric towards Western allies, V. Zelensky continues to insist on Ukraine's admission to NATO and demands reliable security guarantees and the presence of a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine (up to 200 thousand troops). Also, Ukraine continues to insist on tough conditions regarding any potential dialogue with the Russian Federation. But D. Trump seems to believe that the position of the Ukrainian side can be ignored in some respects.
At present, the lower end of Ukraine's interests in peace talks includes keeping the country within the Western spectrum of influence, EU membership, maintaining the size of its army, and access to Western arms purchases. The upper end includes a security agreement with the United States or some other form of credible guarantee, such as the deployment of peacekeeping forces, and the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for restoration. Anything else, according to the authorities, is questionable.
Ukrainian President V. Zelensky is well aware of the impossibility of completely abandoning negotiations since this will lead to an aggravation of relations with US President D. Trump and destroy US-Ukrainian cooperation. Therefore, the Office of the President is forced to soften the rhetoric under the influence of the general negotiating mainstream. In particular, Ukrainian President V. Zelensky commented on the statement of Russian President V. Putin that negotiations cannot take place, since V. Zelensky has banned negotiations with him. So he stated that he issued this decree to "stop separatism in our country. I have banned any political figures in Ukraine from holding negotiations with the Russian side. I am the President of Ukraine. And I am the leader of any negotiations. I have banned everyone else from holding them." V. Zelensky also said that he issued this Decree when Russian troops were stationed near Kyiv. Note that the Decree No. 679 was issued on September 30, 2022. By that time, Russian troops had long since left Kyiv; in fact, the decree was related to the annexation of the Ukrainian-occupied territories by the Russian Federation. The full title of the Decree is On the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated September 30, 2022 "Concerning Ukraine's actions in response to the Russian Federation's attempt to annex the territories of our state to guarantee the security of the Euro-Atlantic space, Ukraine and restore its territorial integrity." The text of the decree reads: "To state the impossibility of holding negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin." That is, the Decree states the "impossibility" (please note that this is not a ban!) of negotiations with V. Putin not only for "political figures", but also for any representatives of Ukraine, including V. Zelensky himself.
In light of constant talk about a possible end to the war as a result of agreements between the US and Russia, the topic of upcoming elections is increasingly being raised in Ukraine. In this context, the Office of the President of Ukraine is taking active steps to build a political space, given the decline in public support.
Also, failures at the front, corruption scandals, and the aggravation of socio-economic problems create the preconditions for internal instability.
The authorities' actions indicate a desire to control the political space ahead of possible elections and minimize the influence of potential competitors.
The Office of the President pays special attention to potential competitors in the upcoming presidential elections. In particular, the campaign to reduce the popularity of the Ambassador to the UK and former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny, whose support among the military and civilian population exceeds the trust ratings of the current President Volodymyr Zelensky, has intensified.
The confrontation between V. Zelensky and former President Petro Poroshenko, the most prominent representative of the so-called "right" opposition, is also intensifying. There are rumors about the possibility of the introduction of sanctions by the National Security and Defense Council against P. Poroshenko, although there is no official confirmation of this information yet. The information is spread mainly through Telegram channels aimed at the Office of the President and is confirmed by comments from associates of the former president. A petition has also appeared on the President's website demanding sanctions against Petro Poroshenko.
Despite P. Poroshenko's significant anti-rating, his political infrastructure is of great concern, although he himself is not a direct competitor for V. Zelensky in the presidential elections. The extensive party structure, media resources, and activity of supporters on social media make P. Poroshenko's influence in the political field noticeable. "European Solidarity" remains one of the few groups that regularly and harshly criticize the actions of the authorities.
At the same time, pressure is being increased on representatives of the so-called "pro-Russian forces". These actions are aimed, among other things, at balancing the accusations of political persecution by supporters of former President P. Poroshenko demonstrated the fight against the opposition across the entire spectrum of political views.
At the same time, various rumors and hints are increasingly being voiced that in the event of failure of the negotiation process, US President D. Trump, who plans to end the war in Ukraine by spring, may "bet" on another political figure in Ukraine, bypassing the Office of the President. For example, The Independent reported that "V. Zelensky's man", the head of the "Servant of the People" faction Arakhamia was present "in a place of honor" at Trump's inauguration. " This was a very important step, which shows Donald Trump's intention to provide Ukraine with a good deal at the end of this process." After that, he told the Ukrainian media that an official Ukrainian delegation is now expected to visit Washington, which will meet with the US President next month.
D. Arakhamia cannot be called "V. Zelensky's man" because he is in constant competition with the head of OP A. Yermak (to a large extent, this figure is playing his own game). In this confrontation, D. Arakhamia, who has connections in the United States, can seek support from the team of the new US President. Whether D. Arakhamia was present at the inauguration of D. Trump, or such rumors were spread by him, is an open question. However, D. Arakhamia claims to remain among the main persons conducting negotiations from Ukraine, as it was during the Istanbul negotiations.
It is noteworthy that the situation around the political triumvirate of David Arakhamia – Denys Shmyhal – Danylo Getmantsev, which has long influenced the financial and economic sphere of Ukraine, has changed dramatically, especially with regard to the role in managing the tax and financial system.
Recently, the publication "Ukrainska Pravda " (the publication of the oligarch Tomas Fiala - CEO of the Ukrainian investment company "Dragon Capital", the origin of which is connected with the US Democratic Party and Soros structures) reported that the head of the GUR Kyrylo Budanov allegedly told the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada about the threat to the existence of Ukraine if peace negotiations do not begin before the summer. According to them, a closed meeting was recently held in the Verkhovna Rada, where the command of the defense forces reported to the leaders of the parliament and factions on the real state of military affairs in the country. During his report, Kirill Budanov said: "If there are no serious negotiations before the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may be launched." This publication caused a great information resonance, individual government officials began to state that K. Budanov's words were taken out of context. Later, the GUR made an official statement that the words of K. Budanov cited by UP "do not correspond to reality."
Most likely, both the statement and the publication are connected with the activation of peace processes initiated by the new US President D. Trump. Individual political forces both inside the country and abroad may be trying to intercept the baton of negotiations from the Office of the President, although the rhetoric of the authorities has softened somewhat recently, they still do not demonstrate a readiness to make any real compromises. Thus, the head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak stated that there are no peace plans in nature to end the war in 100 days.
Let us recall that at present K. Budanov is one of the leaders in the potential elections, he is ahead of the President in terms of trust rating (according to Socis, V. Zaluzhny is trusted by 72%; K. Budanov - 46%; V. Zelensky - 40%).
But it also cannot be ruled out that such a "leak of information" is a preparation of society for the beginning of negotiations and the freezing of the war, with the main semantic construct being promoted – the preservation of the state.
According to the same Socis study, the majority of Ukrainians are ready for negotiations and this figure is growing. Thus, in December 2024, 50.6% of respondents said they were in favor of "searching for a compromise solution with the involvement of leaders of other countries to end the war." In October, it was 49.4%, in September 40.4%, and in February 36.1%. Another 19.5% (in February 2024, it was 8.2%) spoke out in favor of "suspension of hostilities and temporary freezing of the conflict along the current line of contact." That is, a total of 70.1% want the war to end.
14.7% of respondents want to continue the war until reaching the 1991 borders (in February 2024 it was 33.5%), and another 10.2% want to continue until reaching the positions before the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022 (in February 2024 it was 11%). That is, in total 24.9% are in favor of continuing the war.
This is not the first poll to show such dynamics. For example, a recent poll by KIIS showed that over the past year, the number of Ukrainians ready to give up some territories for the sake of peace and preserving independence has doubled. In December 2023, there were 19% of them, and in December 2024, there were already 38%. According to data from the American analytical center Gallup, which was conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like their country to negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. Four out of 10 Ukrainians (38%) believe that Ukraine should continue the fight until victory.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
