"SEVEN SCENARIOS FOR UKRAINE: from Triumph to Decline"

Experts of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, together with partners, prepared an analytical study "SEVEN SCENARIOS FOR UKRAINE: from triumph to decline." The study, which was conducted for more than 6 months, examines 7 key scenarios for Ukraine, their markers, implementation conditions and consequences.

Analysis scenarios of development is one of the critical methods that help us “dispel the darkness” of the future, make the unknown (and, accordingly, frightening) predictable and operable, and prepare states, societies, economies, and ordinary people for it. Also, “scripting” impels essential policy changes that help bring closer a “good” future and avoid adverse developments, especially in a situation where the scientific world and the political environment still disagree about the origins of the crisis and its current stage of development.

The study’s authors proceed from the inviolability of the principles of the territorial integrity of internationally recognized borders and the rule of law of Ukraine. However, among other things, they are forced to analyse scenarios for their illegal violation. We also tried to expand the forecasting horizon.

The primary scientific method of research was the method of structural analysis and modelling, within which 22 internal and external factors were studied. The following were identified as critical factors: the course of hostilities in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the international situation, and social sentiments. Structural modelling was carried out for each of the scenarios.

During the work on the study, the team of authors agreed on the inexpediency and impossibility of scientifically based gradation of the likelihood of scenarios (due to the significant number of unknown variables).

We insist that the scenarios are not an attempt to predict the future but to systematically analyse the interactions of a set of factors that affect the development of the state and society.

The UIP supports all efforts aimed at ending the war and preserving the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.

The full visualized version in Ukrainian, Russian and English is available via the link or in the appendix.