Executive Brief: What follows is the collation of views regarding European and Ukrainian security offered by activist intellectuals who took part in a symposium sponsored by the American Council for Justice and Conflict Resolution and the Ukrainian Institute for Politics.
Risks are attendant on all points raised and there is no “silver bullet” that will solve all problems. We are happy to discuss this executive brief further either in person, by zoom, or in a written form.
Dr. Ruslan Bortnik, Director of the Ukrainian Institute for Politics
Dr. Stephen Eric Bronner, President of the American Council for Justice and Conflict Resolution.
Dr. Uwe Optenhögel, Vice-President of the European Foundation of Progressive Stufdies
Dr. Sergeii Tolstov, Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Ms. Heather Wokusch Director of Development for the International Forum for Understanding
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Current Situation:
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American support for any institutionally organized multilateral defense of the old rules-based order can no longer be taken for granted.
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Europe’s “coalition of the willing” has stepped into the breach. Its $106 billion loan package offsets the economic benefits that will derive from reducing sanctions on Russia’s sale of oil.
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“Ukraine fatigue” is growing and focus has shifted to other crises
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Polls indicate desire for greater integration.
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Future criticisms of Ukraine aid as defense spending cuts into welfare programs.
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Europe and Ukraine find themselves in the status quo ante: Ukrainian resistance rests on Western foreign aid that has its limits leading to economic/military dependency as Russia waits.
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Further fragmentation of the West and new isolation of Ukraine can occur
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What Now for Ukraine?
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Recognize the urgency of peace and act on it.
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Avoid committing to indefinite military deterrence that will drain resources.
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Pursue “balanced deterrence” through greater emphasis on AI and cyber-superiority.
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Take a nuanced strategic approach to alliances such as BRICS a
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create economic partnerships through third parties
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Avoid growing influence of American corporate sectors.
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Mitigate possibilities for geographic expansion of the war, military, and even nuclear escalation
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Toward a Comprehensive Peace Agreement:
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Ukraine should link exit strategies to tactical military
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Understand that economic investment is as much a security guarantee as usual forms of military deterrence
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Include civic actors in the peace process
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Begin with “breakthrough” rather than incremental issues
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Refuse any concession of territory without multi-lateral security regarding the protection of what remains
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In Response to Russian Security Interests:
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Ukraine should table NATO membership in exchange for explicit European security guarantees and investment
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Press for “associate” status in EU
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Discuss demilitarization Express its willingness to demilitarize, but retain police force and national militia:
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Accept lifting sanctions on Russia,
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Call for a monitored “no-man’s land” Reject attempts to shift security guarantees from accountable traditional treaties and governmental aid to unaccountable agreements embedded in codes and corporate profits
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Security and Democracy.
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Ukraine should hold elections and enforce minority rights
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Include civic actors and international stake-holders in negotiations;
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Avoid subordinating its policies to the military-industrial complex and being caught in “militarization trap”;
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Clarify difficulties of transitioning from war economy to durable stability;
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Reconstruction must target local needs as articulated by community organizations.