1. At the moment, a strategic stalemate has set in in the war - there is no winner and loser - none of the parties has admitted defeat or abandoned its goals: the Russian Federation - the elimination of the unipolar world under the leadership of the United States and the seizure of Ukraine, Ukraine - the liberation of all occupied territories; USA and partners - weakening and reorganization of the Russian Federation;
2. The war has moved into a protracted "trench" phase - the forces of the sides have situationally balanced, where the active actions of the parties are carried out over a distance of 180 km. front lines, with a total front length of about 1 thousand km, and the line of contact between Ukraine and the Russian Federation - 2.5 thousand km. Over the past 2 months, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued their slow offensive and captured the areas of the settlements of Liman, Gorskoye, Zolote, Svetlodarsk, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, but could not defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine and turn the tide in the war. At present, only tactical changes are possible;
3. The Russian Federation has lost its strategic advantage in the form of surprise attacks and dominance in artillery and aviation;
4. The Western world keeps consolidating around the US and in support of Ukraine. Ukraine receives large amounts of financial and military-technical assistance from the United States and allies - the amount of assistance provided and planned is more than 80 billion US dollars;
5. The Russian Federation has seized and controls about 20% of the Ukrainian territory (until February 24, 2022 - 6%) - about 125 thousand km2, where at least 8 million people live. population;
6. The Russian Federation has decided on its strategy regarding the occupied territories, which it is going to annex. Representatives of the Russian authorities, in addition to the "LDNR", are actively developing other occupied regions (Kherson, Zaporozhye and Kharkov regions). It is expected that already during the autumn in the occupied territories they can hold the so-called. "referendum" on joining the Russian Federation.
7. Both sides suffer heavy losses in people, equipment and other resources;
8. Taking into account the fact that the war is going on the territory of Ukraine, Ukraine also bears the heaviest economic and infrastructural losses, and the Russian Federation suffers sanctions;
9. According to forecasts, Ukraine's GDP against the backdrop of the war will decline by about 45% this year, and dependence on external financing has critically increased. The total losses of the economy range from $600 billion. The direct losses of the Ukrainian economy due to the destruction and damage to infrastructure is $95.9 billion, or 2.6 trillion hryvnias. Residential buildings account for the largest share of losses - $36.6 billion, or 38% of all losses. As a result of the war, almost 121,000 residential buildings were destroyed or damaged. Now, according to the government, Ukraine needs budget support in the amount of up to $9 billion a month. According to the government, the expenditure side of the budget is UAH 250 billion. At the same time, about UAH 130 billion are monthly spent on the country's military spending. The budget revenue is 40 to 100 billion hryvnias, the rest of the amount must be compensated either by issuing the hryvnia, or by increasing external borrowings;
10. After the imposed sanctions, Russia faced problems in paying its public debt in foreign currency. And now it is experiencing a technical default on its external debt. Russia is effectively deprived of the opportunity to borrow money on Western markets. Before the war, Russia had about $640 billion in foreign exchange and gold reserves, most of which was abroad and is now frozen (about $350 billion). But Russia's revenues from energy exports grew by 40% compared to 2021 due to rising prices;
11. Critical for both sides in the near future will be issues of financial and economic stability, the ability to quickly restore the resources necessary to continue hostilities;
12. Unblocking the export of agricultural products from Ukraine showed the ability of the parties to negotiate if there is an international consensus (USA, EU, China, Russia) and a sincere motive;
13. As a result of blocking ports and food exports, Ukraine has suffered significant losses. The approximate value of the stolen grain and oilseeds is estimated at more than $600 million. The total amount of losses and losses due to the war in agriculture is $27.6 billion. The largest category is indirect losses due to the naval blockade of Ukrainian ports, $11.9 billion and a decrease in production, $9.6 billion. Unblocking ports could add 5% to GDP and bring Ukraine up to $1 billion in additional export earnings per month.
14. A turning point in the war may come during the winter-spring of 2023, peace agreements are likely in the autumn-winter of 2023;
15. Globally, political instability has increased, demand for leadership and populist governance formats has increased, and the world economy is suffering from instability, high prices for raw materials, energy and food.
Ukrainian Institute of Politics
