In the south of the Donetsk Region, Russian troops have seized one of the main strongholds of the Ukrainian armed forces – the town of Vuhledar. Before that, all attempts by the Russian Federation to seize the city since the beginning of the full-scale invasion had failed. Thus, the fall of Vuhledar became another major success for the Russian Federation after the capture of Avdeevka in February 2024. Victories of this level, in general, allow the Russian leadership to informationally support the Russian public's belief that the war in Ukraine is moving in the "right direction.
From a military point of view, Vuhledar is located on high ground (center height - 187 m), which can be used as a springboard to attack other Ukrainian military transport hubs used in the west. In particular, Vuhledar covers the southern flank of Kurakhove and the eastern flank of Velyka Novoselovka. It also covers the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the east flank of Zaporizhzhya Oblast. In the vicinity of the town of Vuhledar, the Russian troops have already started advancing to the village of Bogoyavlenka, the capture of which will complicate the position of the AFU in the area of the Kurakhovo front.
In the Pokrovsk-Kurakhovo direction, the RF troops were under the town of Selidovo and the village of Tsukurino. The village of Marinovka southwest of Novogrodovka was captured. Russian troops will most likely try to bypass the town of Selidovo from the northern flank by cutting the Selidovo - Pokrovsk highway and from the southern flank - the Selidovo - Kurakhovo road cutting the town off from logistical routes.
The Russian Federation is trying to develop a counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast. Russian troops are attacking in three main directions: south of Glushkovo, the village of Plekhovo south of the town of Sudzha, and the village of Olgovka near Korenevo. The Russian troops are attacking in three main directions: south of Glushkovo, the village of Plekhovo south of Suja, and the village of Olgovka near Korenevo.
It is most likely that in October, Russian troops will make every effort to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Kursk bridgehead. For the counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the Russian Federation is pulling together military equipment and reserves, and the number of personnel may range from 40,000 to 55,000. If the pace of the Russian offensive here continues, the AFU may be forced out of the Kursk bridgehead in October-November this year. We would like to remind you that it is politically extremely important for Ukraine to hold the Kursk bridgehead until the end of the presidential election campaign in the United States (November 5).
In general, on the front, the Russian forces retain the advantage and military initiative in the Donetsk direction. If even small offensive rates are maintained here, the Russian Federation is capable of capturing the entire Donbas within 1-2 years. This will shift the entire front closer to Zaporizhzhya or the Dnieper.
After the capture of Vuhledar, the overall military-strategic situation for Ukraine in the Azov region of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya oblasts will worsen because the Russian Federation will now be able to more actively use the railroad lines that were previously under Ukrainian fire, which will consequently increase the supply and mobility of Russian troops in the area.
Thus, from the town of Vuhledar, Ukrainian artillery strikes reached the functioning Volnovakha-Mariupol railroad (18-19 km), as well as the new branch of the railroad (64 km), which was recently built by the Russian Federation after the seizure of the Azov territories of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya regions.
The Russian Federation may now fully launch the railway line between Rostov-on-Don through the occupied Azov region to Crimea, the construction of which the Russians started in the fall of 2023, as an alternative to the Crimean bridge. In this case, the role of the Crimean Bridge itself as a strategic target that was going to be hit in Ukraine will also decrease.
The capacity of the railway part of the bridge is 14 million passengers and 13 million tons of cargo per year. At the same time, the processing capacity of the Crimean railroad is 8.9 million tons of cargo and 57.5 thousand containers per year. (according to the so-called "Ministry of Transportation of the Republic of Crimea").
Now a significant part of transportation of this cargo can go to Crimea, through the Azov region. In general, this section of the railroad can now carry tens of millions of tons of various cargoes per year.
For the team of Ukrainian President V. Zelenskyy, an extremely important issue is the preservation of Western military aid. Ukraine today is largely dependent on Western allies and, if it does not receive additional large military aid packages, it will be forced to go on the defensive at the front. A new Ukrainian counteroffensive is only possible if the allies provide new large funding to the tune of several tens of billions of dollars.
Results of the visit of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to the USA. Last week, the President of Ukraine presented his "Victory Plan" (we discussed its main points in more detail in the last issue) to the US President and presidential candidates - K. Harris (from the Democrats) and D. Trump (from the Republicans). So far, it does not seem that at least one of the items of the "Victory Plan" has been officially supported by the White House (although there has been no refusal to implement them either). In general, this plan was perceived rather skeptically among both Democrats and Republicans in the United States. Given the fact that President Biden was familiar with the plan in advance, at the meeting with V. Zelensky, he pretended that the document still required additional study.
The USA will provide Ukraine with military aid worth 8bn dollars. In particular, Biden said that he had authorized the allocation of the main part of the aid worth 5.5 billion dollars under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA, Presidential Drawdown Authority). This scheme allows weapons to be sent to Ukraine from the US army stocks, and it is this scheme that is the main channel of aid.
In addition, as part of the new package, the Pentagon will allocate $2.4 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which allows paying for weapons orders for Ukraine from US factories. This will allow Ukraine to receive additional air defense assets, drones, and air-to-ground munitions, strengthen its defense industrial complex, and maintain its existing weapons.
The US Department of Defense will provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defense battery and more missiles to it.
The Pentagon will retrain 18 more Ukrainian pilots for F-16 fighter jets in 2025.
Biden has ordered the transfer of Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) guided bombs to Ukraine. These bombs have a range of 130 kilometers when launched from a high altitude.
In general, all the above mentioned can be considered as a compensatory step to visit the President of Ukraine not look like a failure, as it can badly affect the prospects and assessment of Ukraine and V. Zelensky himself in the world and inside the country.
One of the main outcomes of Zelensky's trip was the absence of a decision to lift the ban on strikes on Russian territory with Western long-range weapons. The main reason for such a decision, according to Western officials, is that it would be inexpedient if the risks of escalation with the Russian Federation were too high, and both Democrats and Republicans are not interested in this during the election period. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that J. Biden may eventually take such a step if D. Trump wins the U.S. election.
Zelensky's trip to a weapons factory in Pennsylvania (home of US President Biden), as well as his interview with the New Yorker magazine, in which Zelensky questioned Trump's promises to end the war if elected, saying that he "has no idea how to end the war", almost led to a diplomatic conflict with the camp of Republicans and US Presidential candidate Trump (whose meeting with Zelensky was almost canceled). In particular, the Republicans began to accuse Ukraine that it had stopped adhering to neutrality in the US elections and now supporting the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. The conflict could eventually cost Ukraine bipartisan support from the United States, which, despite certain tensions with the Republicans, has been used by the Ukrainian leadership so far.
The meeting with D. Trump did eventually take place. But Zelensky had to write him a letter and ask for a meeting. In response, D. Trump published this letter and invited the President of Ukraine to his New York office in Trump Tower ("Trump Tower").
Thus, Ukraine apologized to D. Trump in two forms – first in the letter of the Presentation, and also by the fact that the reception eventually took place on the territory of the former US president in Trump Tower.
Following a meeting between Ukrainian President V. Zelenskyy and US Republican presidential candidate D. Trump, the conflict between the Ukrainian president's team and the Republican camp has been partially mitigated. Although the letter from the speaker of the US House of Representatives, M. Johnson, to V. Zelenskyy demanding the dismissal of Ukraine's ambassador to the USA, O. Markarova, has not been withdrawn yet. It is noteworthy that the message was sent to Trump through Denys Senyk, deputy chief of mission at the Ukrainian embassy in the USA, and not through Ukrainian Ambassador to the USA O. Markarova.
In particular, the meeting between D. Trump and V. Zelensky will allow Ukraine to hope to maintain bipartisan support in the United States regardless of the election result, although relations with the Republicans did suffer. The meeting also deradicalized the positions of both sides. D. Trump was already much more careful and softer in his rhetoric and did not mention the "small mischief" that V. Zelensky was doing to him. In turn, V. Zelensky did not say that D. Trump "does not understand anything about how to end the war in Ukraine". Even a visit of D. Trump to Ukraine is likely.
Both the Ukrainian president and the former US president declared that they were in favor of a peaceful settlement. It looked like V. Zelensky did not object to the start of such negotiations, which D. Trump directly spoke about in his comments. Whether it was sincere or just an electoral game for D. Trump and an information and political game for V. Zelensky, only the results of the US presidential election will show.
We would like to note that the meeting with Zelenskyy was also important for Trump himself during his election campaign, as he needs to demonstrate to his electorate that he has influence in Ukraine and that he really can and knows how to achieve peace. A possible visit of D. Trump to Ukraine was also announced.
Following criticism of the PRC's peace plan from Ukrainian President Zelensky, Brazil the PRC (later joined by Hungary), and other like-minded countries of the Global South want to create a "Friends of Peace" platform. This is an alternative peace format to the Bürgenstock Group, which was created at the first Global Peace Summit in Switzerland to develop more detailed models of peace settlement.
Thus, the countries of the Global South have intensified their peace initiatives alternative to the proposals of Ukraine and Western allies. The key requirement of these proposals is the cessation of hostilities along the front line, which essentially means freezing the war, which the Ukrainian leadership opposes.
Very important events are expected to take place in October from the point of view of the further course of the war. In particular, there will be a meeting in Germany of the leaders of the largest Western countries, where they will discuss further strategies for the war in Ukraine. It is not ruled out that the Allies may then permit British or French missiles to hit Russian territories.
Also in October, the BRICS summit will be held in Kazan, Russia, where China may present its peace plan. It is not yet clear whether the Russian Federation will fully support China's proposals and stop the war along the front lines. In this case, the Russian Federation and the countries of the "Global South" will present a united front. So far, the likelihood of direct peace talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine is extremely low, as it would severely damage the reputation of the requested party. The main vector of peace talks will be determined by the US elections. If they are won by former President Trump, the probability of stopping the war along the front line or another compromise option for settling the war increases significantly.
Ukraine may hold elections, and rumors about this periodically appear in various Western media outlets. For example, The Economist writes that "the political process in Ukraine has begun". Allegedly, several Ukrainian politicians confirm that Ukrainian President V. Zelenskyy is considering holding presidential elections in 2025 amid a drop in his ratings. The publication cites data from the American National Democratic Institute, according to which trust in Zelensky has fallen from 80% in May 2023 to 45% in 2024. The president allegedly wants to consolidate his power with the help of the election.
We shall remind you that there is a consensus in the country that elections should not be held during martial law. This is stated in the conclusion of the Central Election Commission of 22.02.2024, which refers to Articles 106 and 108 of the Constitution of Ukraine, as well as the Law of Ukraine "On the legal regime of martial law". According to the CEC, the election should be scheduled within 30 days after the end of martial law. At the same time, Zelenskyy should exercise his powers until his successor takes office. Holding elections during the war will require appropriate amendments to Ukrainian legislation with the involvement of the Constitutional Court, which is a complicated process that may be significantly delayed.
Therefore, the elections in Ukraine largely depend on the military situation in the country, as well as on the results of the elections in the United States. If the Republican candidate D. Trump (who has repeatedly promised to stop the war even before taking office) wins the election, there could be a sharp change in the course of the United States about Ukraine, which will significantly increase the probability of elections. However, the victory of the Democratic candidate K. Harris does not completely rule this out either.
The likely reasons why elections next year or later may be necessary are a crisis of confidence between Ukraine and its Western partners. Or the President himself will want to reboot the country's political system to get a new mandate of trust, renew his team, and avoid an internal political crisis. If V. Zelensky feels that his anti-ratings (now about 30-35%) have begun to dominate over his ratings (now about 60%), he may insist on holding elections himself.
Certain external forces are also interested in the elections, considering them as an opportunity to weaken the power of V. Zelenski and his team or even an opportunity to completely reset the government. Elections are in any case a maximum activation of political processes: citizens' meetings, rallies, demonstrations, and demands for freedom of speech.
With critical contradictions growing between Ukraine and its Western allies (American and European), the demand for the Ukrainian leadership to hold elections may become key.
Moreover, Western allies can push or initiate the processes of political crisis by supporting, for example, the Ukrainian opposition, as it has already happened many times, which in the end is bound to lead to elections.
But this is an extreme scenario because Europe and the U.S. realize that elections held in such a way and under such conditions will weaken Ukraine and this can be used by Russia.
An additional sign that the authorities in Ukraine are preparing for the election processes is the personnel rotations in the power bloc, rumors about which have been spreading more and more in the media lately.
Ukrainian President Viktor Zelenskyy has reshuffled the leadership of the Foreign Intelligence Service, dismissing Oleh Lugovskyy and Oleh Sinaiko as deputy heads of the agency. Lugovskyy was appointed first deputy head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, while Hennadiy Bohach will take O. Sinaiko's place.
In particular, rumors are spreading that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and the head of the GUR, Kirill Budanov, may be dismissed from their posts. Earlier, Defense Minister R. Umerov, in whose department the GUR is located, dismissed two deputies of K. Budanov - Viktor Zaitsev and Igor Ostapenko, as the media reported - without consulting the head of the intelligence service.
The possible replacement of the GUR chief is also a marker of friction between the head of the Office of the President, A. Yermak, and K. Budanov. It should be remembered that K. Budanov has his alternative channels of communication with Western partners, as well as significant influence inside the country, which allows him to create a team that is competitive for the authorities. In addition, K. Budanov allegedly did not support the operation in the Kursk region.
The removal of K. Budanov from the post of the head of the GUR could reduce his media popularity and thus the authorities will get rid of a possible strong competitor in the power bloc in potential elections.
But the final decision on the dismissal of K. Budanov has not been made yet, as the political overtones of this dismissal will be too obvious. Yesterday, President V. Zelensky held a meeting with GUR chief K. Budanov and heard his report, as well as the reports of Glavkom A. Syrsky, Defense Minister R. Umerov, and Chief of the General Staff A. Bargilevich. This may indicate that all of them, including K. Budanov, will retain their positions for the time being. Budanov will retain their positions shortly.
A sign that the authorities will decide to replace the head of the GUR will be the fact that critical statements about K.Budanov will soon appear in the information space. The formal reason for this may be several unsuccessful operations of the GUR in recent times.
Battle maps.
Kursk region.
Donetsk region.
Results of the visit of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to the USA.
Results of the visit of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to the USA. Last week, the President of Ukraine presented his "Victory Plan" (we discussed its main points in more detail in the last issue) to the US President and presidential candidates - K. Harris (from the Democrats) and D. Trump (from the Republicans). So far, it does not seem that at least one of the items of the "Victory Plan" has been officially supported by the White House (although there has been no refusal to implement them either). In general, this plan was perceived rather skeptically among both Democrats and Republicans in the United States. Given the fact that President Biden was familiar with the plan in advance, at the meeting with V. Zelensky, he pretended that the document still required additional study.
The USA will provide Ukraine with military aid worth 8bn dollars. In particular, Biden said that he had authorized the allocation of the main part of the aid worth 5.5 billion dollars under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA, Presidential Drawdown Authority). This scheme allows weapons to be sent to Ukraine from the US army stocks, and it is this scheme that is the main channel of aid.
In addition, as part of the new package, the Pentagon will allocate $2.4 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which allows paying for weapons orders for Ukraine from US factories. This will allow Ukraine to receive additional air defense assets, drones, and air-to-ground munitions, strengthen its defense industrial complex, and maintain its existing weapons.
The US Department of Defense will provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defense battery and more missiles to it.
The Pentagon will retrain 18 more Ukrainian pilots for F-16 fighter jets in 2025. Biden has ordered the transfer of Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) guided bombs to Ukraine. The range of these bombs is 130 kilometers when launched from a high altitude.
In general, all the above mentioned can be considered as a compensatory step to visit the President of Ukraine not look like a failure, as it can badly affect the prospects and assessment of Ukraine and V. Zelensky himself in the world and inside the country.
One of the main outcomes of Zelensky's trip was the absence of a decision to lift the ban on strikes on Russian territory with Western long-range weapons. The main reason for such a decision, according to Western officials, is that it would be inexpedient if the risks of escalation with the Russian Federation were too high, and both Democrats and Republicans are not interested in this during the election period. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that J. Biden may eventually take such a step if D. Trump wins the U.S. election.
Zelensky's trip to a weapons factory in Pennsylvania (home of U.S. President Biden), as well as his interview with the New Yorker magazine, in which Zelensky questioned Trump's promises to end the war if elected, saying that he "has no idea how to end the war", almost led to a diplomatic conflict with the camp of Republicans and U.S. Presidential candidate D. Trump (whose meeting with Zelensky was almost canceled).
In particular, the Republicans began accusing Ukraine of having stopped adhering to neutrality in the US elections and now supporting the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. The conflict could eventually cost Ukraine bipartisan support in the United States, which, despite certain tensions with the Republicans, has been used by the Ukrainian leadership so far.
The meeting with D. Trump did eventually take place. But Zelensky had to write him a letter and ask for a meeting. In response, D. Trump published this letter and invited the President of Ukraine to his New York office in Trump Tower ("Trump Tower"). "All of us in Ukraine want to end this war with a just peace. And we know that this cannot be achieved without America. That's why we must strive to understand each other and stay in close contact" "A few days ago we asked for a meeting with you, and I'm very eager to hear your thoughts directly, firsthand." "You know that I always have the utmost respect for anything to do with you, and that is as it should be. I can be in New York on Friday, and that would be a good time to meet," the letter said.
Thus, Ukraine apologized to D. Trump in two forms – first in the letter of the Presentation, and also by the fact that the reception eventually took place on the territory of the former US president in Trump Tower.
Following a meeting between Ukrainian President V. Zelenskyy and US Republican presidential candidate D. Trump, the conflict between the Ukrainian president's team and the Republican camp has been partially mitigated. Although the letter from the speaker of the US House of Representatives, M. Johnson, to V. Zelenskyy demanding the dismissal of Ukraine's ambassador to the USA, O. Markarova, has not been withdrawn yet. It is noteworthy that the message was sent to Trump through Denys Senyk, deputy chief of mission at the Ukrainian embassy in the USA, and not through Ukrainian Ambassador to the USA O. Markarova.
In particular, the meeting between D. Trump and V. Zelensky will allow Ukraine to hope to maintain bipartisan support in the United States regardless of the election result, although relations with the Republicans did suffer. The meeting also deradicalized the positions of both sides. D. Trump was already much more careful and softer in his rhetoric and did not mention the "small mischief" that V. Zelensky was doing to him. In turn, V. Zelensky did not say that D. Trump "does not understand anything about how to end the war in Ukraine". Even a visit of D. Trump to Ukraine is likely.
Both the Ukrainian president and the former US president declared that they were in favor of a peaceful settlement. It looked like V. Zelensky did not object to the start of such negotiations, which D. Trump directly spoke about in his comments. Whether it was sincere or just an electoral game for D. Trump and an information and political game for V. Zelensky, only the results of the US presidential election will show.
We would like to note that the meeting with Zelenskyy was also important for Trump himself during his election campaign, as he needs to demonstrate to his electorate that he has influence in Ukraine and that he really can and knows how to achieve peace. A possible visit of D. Trump to Ukraine was also announced.
Following criticism of the PRC's peace plan from Ukrainian President Zelensky, Brazil the PRC (later joined by Hungary), and other like-minded countries of the Global South want to create a "Friends of Peace" platform. This is an alternative peace format to the Bürgenstock Group, which was established at the first Global Peace Summit in Switzerland to develop more detailed models of peace settlement.
Thus, the countries of the Global South have intensified their peace initiatives alternative to the proposals of Ukraine and Western allies. The key requirement of these proposals is the cessation of hostilities along the front line, which essentially means freezing the war, which the Ukrainian leadership opposes.
Very important events are expected to take place in October from the point of view of the further course of the war. In particular, there will be a meeting in Germany of the leaders of the largest Western countries, where they will discuss further strategies for the war in Ukraine. It is not ruled out that the Allies may then permit British or French missiles to hit Russian territories.
Also in October, the BRICS summit will be held in Kazan, Russia, where China may present its peace plan. It is not yet clear whether the Russian Federation will fully support China's proposals and stop the war along the front lines. In this case, the Russian Federation and the countries of the "Global South" will present a united front. So far, the likelihood of direct peace talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine is extremely low, as it would severely damage the reputation of the requested party. The main vector of peace talks will be determined by the US elections. If they are won by former President Trump, the probability of stopping the war along the front line or another compromise option for settling the war increases significantly.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Policy Institute
